Home » 2009 Preview

For Starters

Apr. 4, 2009 | 2:05 pm 4
By Tracy Ringolsby

For a look at the Rockies preview check out:
http://www.insidetherockies.com/2009/04/04/rockies-looking-to-rebound/

For a look at the Rockies lineup check out:
http://www.insidetherockies.com/2009/04/03/lining-up-the-rockies/

For a look at the Rockies bullpen check out:
http://www.insidetherockies.com/2009/04/04/is-relief-in-sight/

For a look at the Rockies bench check out:
http://www.insidetherockies.com/2009/04/03/balanced-bench/

For the odds on the Rockies in 2009 check out:
http://www.insidetherockies.com/2009/04/04/what-are-the-odds-on/

STARTING ROTATION
The Rockies opened spring training looking for a fifth starter.

Seven weeks later, they prepare to open the regular season wondering not only about the fifth starter, but also the third and fourth. Spring training wasn’t kind to the Rockies rotation.

But it was spring training.

And none of that counts as of Monday, when the Rockies open the regular season at Arizona.
Besides, for two days, the Rockies can put the concerns on hold. They go into the season confident that their 1-2 starters – Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez – can match up with the 1-2 starters of any team, including Arizona, which will counter Cook and Jimenez on Monday and Tuesday with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.

But then come the three-game stretch that by season’s end will be the ultimate factor in whether the Rockies can contend in the NL West – left-handers Franklin Morales and Jorge De La Rosa with right-hander Jason Marquis thrown between them to break up the lefties.
The difference between contenders and pretenders is the depth of the rotation.

And the Rockies do feel that as the season progress they will develop some alternatives if a need arises. In addition to their ongoing trade talks with Tampa Bay about right-hander Jason Hammel, who would initially work out of the bullpen, the Rockies have Josh Fogg, Greg Reynolds, Jason Hirsh and Greg Smith at Triple-A Colorado Springs, and Jhouyls Chacin opening the season at Double-A Tulsa with the focus on being developing a consistent breaking pitcher to go with his potentially dominating fastball/changeup combo.

When the Rockies rallied down the stretch and went to the World Series for the first time in franchise history in 2007, the top two winners in the rotation, Jeff Francis (17-9) and Josh Fogg (10-9), were a combined 27-18, and the rest of the rotation was 28-29, just a game below .500.

By contrast, a year ago, the top two winners, Aaron Cook (16-9) and Ubaldo Jimenez (12-12), were a combined 28-21, but the rest of the rotation was 26-40. The numbers were similar in 2006 (24-20 compared to 28-43) and 2005 (21-9 compared to 28-61).

Of the eight teams that advanced to the post-season last year, only one, the Dodgers, saw its 3-4-5 spots in the rotation combine for a record that was more than two games below .500 (26-33).

Take away the top two winners in the rotation for each of the eight post-season teams, and the remainder of the rotation averaged 34 ½ and 32 losses.

Tampa Bay, in surprising the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, saw its 3-4-5 starters combined to go 39-31, and the Angels, the only team that won 100 games, had a 33-14 record for its two top starters, and a 40-26 record for the rest of the rotation.

So the Rockies can take hope with Cook, even though he has yet to show he can be strong from start to finish, and Jimenez, who seemed to turn a corner in the final half last year.

An All-Star a year ago, Cook won 16 games, one shy of the club record. He did lead the team with 32 starts and 211 1/3 innings. But there was some second-half arm fatigue. He was 0-1 in his last four starts, and was denied a final shot at tying the single-season victory record when he was scratched from his final start of the season because of a dead arm.

In his first full big-league season, Jimenez struggled early, and at the end of June was 2-8 with a 4.85 earned-run average in his first 17 starts. In his final 17 starts, however, he was 10-4 with a 3.34 earned-run average. He allowed three or fewer runs in four of the seven games he did not win.

Marquis shouldn’t be a surprise. He will most likely finish a game or two above .500, win 12 or 13 games and work 170 to 180 innings. The track record is there, even if the Rockies think he still has an upside, and it says he’s a fifth starter on a division championship team.

That leaves it up to Morales and De La Rosa to turn mid-90 velocity into double figure victory totals.

After being a part of the Rockies September surge to the post-season in 2007, Morales opened 2008 in the big-league rotation. Five starts into the season, Morales had been shipped back to Colorado Springs, where he spent the rest of the season, struggling to throw strikes.

During the off-season, Morales admitted he had back soreness he never told the Rockies about, and he gave the Rockies reason to believe that assessment with a strong effort in winter ball in his native Venezuela. He also had a solid spring, compiling a 4.50 ERA.

De La Rosa has a history of teasing, but not delivering. The Rockies want to feel De La Rosa turned the corner in the second half last season when he was 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA, lowest post-All-Star ERA in Rockies history for a pitcher with at least 10 starts. He was 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA his last nine starts.

4 Comments »

  • Tony Benjamin said:

    Hello Tracy,
    What is the status of Jason Hirsh?
    I lost sight of him in the shuffle.
    Thanks,
    Tony B.

  • Tracy Ringolsby (author) said:

    Tony, Jason Hirsh was optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs in early March.

  • chris said:

    Tracy,
    Do you think jorge de la rosa really has what it takes to put up good numbers in the rockies rotation all season

  • Tracy Ringolsby (author) said:

    Chris, the honest answer is I don’t think anybody knows.
    What is known is he has the abilities to be dominate, a lot like Jonathan Sanchez with the Giants.
    What is known is that he got into a mental frame of mind at the end of last season and was extremely consistent.
    What isn’t known is if he is capable of building off that and putting togehter some consistency this year. His first start was a disappointment in that he had two outs and nobody on in both innings that he gave up runs, and he couldn’t put away left-handed hitters.
    I’m not going to overreact to one game, either way. I’d like to see him three or four times before I’d react one way or the other.

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