It’s Prediction Time
Which team found the right off-season formula to win the NL West in 2009?
Arizona has a rotation built around Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, but for the third year in a row is auditioning a new closer, lost the spark of second baseman Orlando Hudson and didn’t make a dramatic roster addition.
Colorado lost its No. 3 hitter, Matt Holliday, closer, Brian Fuentes, and the NL-leading base stealer, Willy Taveras. They do, however, have a healthy Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki and brought in closer Huston Street.
Los Angeles finally re-signed Manny Ramirez, and landed Orlando Hudson at a bargain price, but the Dodgers also lost Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, veteran members of the rotation.
San Diego bid adieu to all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman, welcomed new CEO Jeff Moorad, and continued to stumble through an effort to find some offense without having any success.
San Francisco reinforced it’s already strong rotation by signing veteran left-hander Randy Johnson, but failed to add a meaningful bat to its anemic offense.
I’ll bite:
I think Arizona takes it with a lineup that has learned how to deal with grind of 162 games. If Qualls fails, Rauch and Pena can fill the void. And if Scherzer or Garland falter, Jarrod Parker will be on speed dial. Heck, Kenny Rogers could be on speed dial.
Next:
Dodgers: I think their bullpen will be the Achilles’ heel. Great outfield offense, average or above elsewhere.
Rockies: Either Tulo or Helton stage big comebacks, but the odds are against both.
Giants: Next generation of stars learn the ropes (Ishikawa, Sandoval, Posey). But will they rush Bumgarner?
Padres: What will they get for Peavy? Samardzija and Hoffpauir?
My guess:
Los Angeles
Arizona
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego
I’m a homer:
Rockies
Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Padres
I think the Rockies have a shot, but their pitching staff continues to be the issue. If they can pull it together like they did two years ago, the offense will be there. Consistency in pitching is the key.
Dodgers
Rockies
D-backs
Giants
Padres
One: “but failed to add a meaningful bat to its anemic offense.” I’ve seen stuff all over on predictions. Why can’t a young guy coming up be considered an added bat? Why does it that have to mean old and expensive? Can’t Pablo Sandoval be a big bat for SF? Can’t Fowler or Stewart be big bats for the Rockies?
Sorry, that’s just bur in my saddle
Now for the NL West:
1) Dodgers. Nice infield defense. Nice young players in Martin, Kemp, and Furcal is back. Their pitching is thin or they could run away with this division. It’s nice to have money
2) Rockies. I’m a homer, and I might be looking at this team all wrong, but many projections have us near the top in the league in run scored. Fowler, Stewart are good young hitters, Helton looks reborn this spring. Iannetta is a top 5 hitting catcher. Pitching looks to have live arms, though inconsistent besides Cook, and will be “fun” to watch. Not enough quality starting pitching. I think this is a .500 team.
3) Giants. GREAT rotation. I like Sandoval, Rowlands, their 1b had a huge spring. Not as devoid of hitting as most see them. Good enough for a VERY close 3rd
4) D-back. Young inconsistent hitters…if they all put it together, could be a surprise. Improved rotation with Schrezer and Garland added to Webb and Haren. But bull pen is thin. Too many what ifs
5)Padres. Peavy (at the moment) and a pretty park. Lots of young hitters that really don’t look that good to me. Worst record in the NL?
I think each team is one key injury away from losing the division. You have to go with the Dodgers first, but if Ramirez gets hurt that will impact them dramatically. With the D-Backs if Webb gets hurt, they are probably done. With the Rockies it is Tulo or even Cook/Jiminez. I don’t see the Giants or Padres as factors, honestly.
I think this division will come down to which team can best fill in the gaps in their starting rotations. Seems like every team has a couple of good starters at the top of the rotation and then by the time you get to the 4th starter each team is in a murky situation.
If the Morales/De La Rosa spots in the rotation can give the Rockies 300+ innings at around a 4.00 ERA, the Rockies will be in contention all season. Of course, that assumes Cook/Jimenez/Marquis maintain their level of performance from last season. Should be interesting to watch it unfold!
The Dodgers will be either great or a huge disappointment. I suggest they will start strong but won’t last.
The Giants have the pitching to win the division.
The Rockies have the best bats, good chemistry and starting pitching that might make their bullpen irrelevant.
Padres are playing for 2012.
AZ could quietly play well enough to stay in it and win it in the end.
The envelope:
Giants, Arizona, Rockies, Dodgers and Padres
Each team has its issues…
Arizona… Streaky, strikeout pron lineup, and an unproven bullpen, but their starting rotation in my mind is better than SanFran. Makes them the favorites.
Colorado… Love the regular lineup and bench. Just as deep as LA but missing the centerpiece bat. Francis going down hurts the depth and quality of the rotation. I think Colorado and LA are going to be battling it out for the number two spot. Here’s to the Rockies putting it all together (and maybe winning the wildcard).
Los Angeles… Best regular lineup top to bottom in the NL. But their pitching rotation is in shambles. Kershaw may be the guy down the road but haveing a 21 year old lead the staff (or number 2 if Billingsly is ok) just wont cut it. Too much pressure. Unless the go out and get a premium SP at the deadline, I think they will come up short.
San Francisco… While I like Sandoval, I don’t believe in the free agents they acquired this off season (too old and unpredictable in my opinion). Love Lincicum, but after him I think there are too many questions about this rotation which everyone seems to like. SanFran seems to be everyone’s dark horse but I not buying.
San Diego… With new ownership just starting to take stock, and rumors swirling about a Peavy trade… these are hard times in San Diego. My pick to come in last.
Make mine:
1. Dastardly Dodgers
2. Rockin’ Rockies
3. Junior Giants
4. Slitherin’ D’backs
5. Poorhouse Padres
Redhawk, you do have a point. Sandoval will be interesting to watch. He was a solid producer late in the season when the Rockies saw him. I guess what I look at with the Giants, though, is they still have Molina hitting fourth. Plus, there are questions if the Rockies are rushing Fowler, jumping him from Double A to the bigs, and putting him in a low pressure role to begin. Sandoval last year opened at Hi-A then Double-A then the big leagues. And he’s being asked to be a critical part of the team. It’s a lot to be thrown on a young player and it will be interesting to see how he handles it.
Hello Posters,
I like the Rockies chances this year.
Especially since so many have written them off.
The team chemistry seems real. It can overcome a lot, and something that stats don’t reflect.
Or maybe I’m overly hopeful.
Hope springs eternal, most always when it comes to baseball.
In the springtime.
Like the Broncos come fall, I think this could be an interesting season for the Rocks.
Professional sport is a business. But there’s something beyond that, which, when it’s tapped into provides for all involved a pure love of the game.
Tony Benjamin
1st dbacks…..garland will be their 3rd quality starter and the difference maker. they were 20-8 in april last year. once again, their 18 home games with 4 on the road in april should give them a huge start. wouldn’t it be fun if the rockies could play the dbacks far better than last year……lol?
2nd dodgers…..bite my tongue for saying the word dodgers. their everyday lineup is imposing. don’t think they have enough starting pitching.
3rd rockies…..i DEFINITELY want them to win the division. if they can play well enough on the road during the first 3 months while they have 14 more games on the road than at home to be .500 come July 1, they can make up ground in july, august, and september.
4th giants…..just don’t care for them.
5th padres…..any games lost to them will be tough to overcome, since everyone SHOULD win series or sweeps over them
Wow I was actually impressed with this column/posts from everyone. Good Rox talk going on with some decent opinions rather than people who know nothing and think the Rockies should sign AROD and ManRam every year. P.s. I agree with RedHawk. I think Sandoval will be good if he doesnt eat himself out of the lineup.
My BOLD predictions:
Giants (with pitching staff + bat at deadline)
Rockies (dodgers should be here but Rocks have everything go right)
Dodgers (Hopefully ManRam is a cancer and they finish last)
Dbacks (could see them taking first but for now well go 4th)
Padres (looking at there lineup= WOW, long season ahead)
Tracy,
Atkins will play first when Helton sits obviously but have you ever seen Hawpe at first other than in college? Is he basically as bad as he is in right? With the Tigers cutting Sheffield this last week would the Rocks ever do that with Helton if he doesnt perform this year? The way I look at it is its all about Wins and Losses. If cutting Helton and sticking Atkins there with Stewart at third is going to better the team then why not?
I HOPE EVERYONE ENJOYS OPENING DAY. If you dont have High Def for Rockies games you need to get it. Youll never want to watch them again if its not in HD!
I have not seen Hawpe play first base so I can’t comment on that.
There is a long ways to go before the Rockies would make that kind of a decision on Helton. He brings a lot of intangibles to the clubhouse, too. As opposed to some players he is not a distraction. It will be interesting to see how he responds this year after the back surgery. Until then I think it’s premature to talk about what could happen with him.
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