Taking the Offensive
The Rockies are in position to make a run at the second half.
There is always talk about pitching.
Do the Rockies have what it takes offensively?
Whaddya think?
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I think most people believe they are likely to hit for better average in the second half, as right now they are below last year’s disappointing .263. Tulo, Stewart, Iannetta, and Atkins are all likely to improve, which will create more RBI opportunities for Helton, Barmes, and Hawpe. I think left field remains a question mark – do you emphasize offense or defense? I think the Rockies have a chance to be the best scoring team in the NL by the end of the season.
Offense will be fine. The warm weather always brings out their best. Pitching will be the issue, especially the bullpen. Bring back Herges! You could get him for a song and at worst he could eat up innings.
The offense has shown to be streaky. It’s not surprising, because in their careers, that’s the kind of hitters Tulo, Stewart, and Barmes are. If you compound that with the everyday development of Fowler and Gonzales, you’re going to hit some rough patches (i.e. most of the last two weeks).
As much as I like the team trying to develop CarGo on an everyday basis, he should be platooning more with Dexter than in left field. Seth Smith may not have CarGo’s speed, but he’s shown an ability to cover the entire field at the plate while providing the power that we only talk about with CarGo.
A guy like Spilly is incredibly valuable because of his willingness to take on any role and still be a coagulating force in the clubhouse. That being said, he’s a threat at the plate and the team has shown they can win with him at the top of the lineup. Remember the run in ’07. It was Spilborghs, not Taveras leading off every game in September all the way to the NLCS. When Willy was put back in the lineup, the team stopped hitting. I think sometimes Hurdle and even Tracy get too wrapped up in a guy’s speed when they are not getting on base. Leadoff is a spot for two out RBI due to the high chances of a sacrifice before him from the pitcher’s spot.
I appreciate what both Dex and CarGo give the team on defense and I’m not calling for both to be benched. Just sprinkle Ryan and Seth into more at bats. With a lineup involving more Spilly and Smith, the team can score earlier and bring in the youngsters later in the game for defensive purposes.
-L
p.s. Are the Rox making a run at BJ Ryan? He seems to be the kind of arm they are looking for.
I would say the rockies have more than enough offense to take the wild card so long as Hawpe and Helton stay healthy and keep up their game. I would like to see Smith get a long look with consecutive games. THis is something that has been said a lot but we have never actually seen. All the kid does is hit. Easier said than done though, spilly and cargo bring so much to the game, but i would like to see smith get a good long look. It’s more than a month a way but i am also really interested in the September call ups. I think EY Jr. could be something really special but if the rockies are still in the hunt i doubt they would change a winning line up. The Rockies are so awesome and i am so excited for the second half of the season.
The Rox need to continue to hit timely (!), and do what they did early in their hot streak – small ball, team first attitude, move runners, BE TIMELY and be clutch! I saw a lot more big swings (and misses) in the last 10 – 12 games before the break.
If offense is your concern, then Spilly/Smith need to platoon in left.
PS – great at bat by Hawpe in the ASG in the seventh – nobody has commented much on how he took that fastball to left center! Keep your chin up Brad, it was a great stroke!!!
We have the offense. I agree with Jerry on the spilly/smith thing with one adjustment, SPILLY NEEDS TO PLAY EVERYDAY. Period. As much as possible, he needs to be in at the top of the lineup. He will produce. Tulow will continue to grow his average up into the .265-.275 range for the back half. RBIs won’t be a problem. Baserunners will be. Spilly. everyday.
The Rockies thus far have the 3rd or 4th best offense (once park effects are considered). Like most here, I don’t see it declining. Hawpe, Barmes and Smith hit above their career norms/projections for this season, but others hit beneath theirs in the first half (Iannetta, Spilly, Stewart, Atkins) and it should balance out.
It’s a strength of O’Dowd’s team that the lineup doesn’t have many weak spots. The drawback is that it will be hard to get any extra oomph out of it–going from avg to good or good to great is a lot more difficult than filling a hole. Thankfully, they shouldn’t need any help. Even the bench is strong with the extra OF’s and Atkins hitting (.358 BA, .414 OBP, .453 SLG since Stewart took his job).
I agree with Jerry-I think the timing is the key. We don’t need a return of the Blake Street Bombers (although that would be nice), we need them to get the ducks on the pond home. Maybe I spend too much time noticing it, but it seems like we always leave a lot of guys on base.
That being said, If the Rockies are going to make any moves, I would like to see it in pitching vs offense.
Go Rockies!
PS-I didn’t see the all star game last night, but saw the highlight of the catch about 5 times before they said it was Hawpe that hit it. UGGGH. Maybe he would have been MVP if that ball was about 5 inches farther!
I think they have enough offense as well, but am concerned about Ianetta’s regression this year and the LF situation. I honestly thought Ianetta would be an all-star this year, and while he has hit for some power and does a good job defensively, his average is way below where it should be. I would start Smith in left with Spilly getting 2-3 starts per week in LF/CF. Bring CarGo off the bench as a late inning defender and pinch-runner. Dexter gets on base quite a bit, but may hit the rookie wall. That’s why I would start Spilly out there at least once per week.
This team’s offense is as good as the strongest of the Blake Street Bomber era (and better than most of them). This team’s relative strength is masked by the fact that the park is no longer boosting offense by 50% and the league is no longer averaging 5.0 runs/game.
Iannetta’s BA is low but he is still having quite a strong season due to his power and walks. He’s the 3rd best offensive catcher in the NL behind McCann and Hanigan (in terms of rate stats…he’s a little lower in overall value due to time lost to injuries).
i may be in the minority here, but i believe the the overall outcome for the offense is with tulo, stewart and smith. i think smith needs to remain in the role he is in now… an occasional start but mainly a pinch hitter. helton and hawpe are going to produce like they always have, but when tulo and stewart are good, they are as good as anybody in the league. i think stewart has some potential to be great, but him and tulo both need better consistency. if you get any consistency out of either of them, you have a nearly unstoppable lineup. throw in smith when you need a clutch pinch hit and you have a hell of a lineup and bench
I’m concerned about the offense. they are 2nd in the league in runs scored, but only 20th in Batting Average. Which tells me they are scoring a bunch of runs in some games, and struggle in others (as my eyes tell me too).
They need to be more consistent. If Tulo can be around his June numbers for the rest of the year, the Rockies will do just fine. Barmes has declined in June, and the Rockies need more out of Iannetta, Stewart, and LF.
LF should be better by just playing Smith and Spillborghs more. I’d like to see Eric Young Jr. at 2nd or on the bench even to pinch run, as that would add a dynamic offensively to the team.
Do they have enough to compete for the Wild Card….pfft…of course. Have you seen what the Brewers and Mets and Giants are running out there to hit?
Testing (sorry)
Team R/G rank % 0-3 % 4-7 % 8+
Dodgers 2 34.1 46.6 19.3
Phillies 1 35.2 39.8 22.7
Testing (sorry, another try)
Team R/G rank % 0-3 % 4-7 % 8+
Dodgers 2 34.1 46.6 19.3
Phillies 1 35.2 39.8 22.7
Phooey, that’s not going to work.
Anyway, I was going to write that I doubt batting average as a stat shows any more/less streakiness than runs/game or OBP or SLG. To the extent that the Rockies are streaky (there’s some sign of that, which was why I was trying to figure out how to post columns of data), it looks like it could be a Coors Field effect, as the Rockies’ run-scoring seems more variant on the road.
There’s an article at the Hardball Times that shows MLB team winning pct with various run-scored totals (data is from 2000-2004). Overall, teams played .339 ball w/3 runs, .471 with 4, .593 with 5, and so forth until gains stated diminishing after runs 6-7. (i.e., after the Taco Bell run. BTW, that phrase is very close to the opposite of what Taco Bell is going for as an advertising statement.)
A team’s actual winning pct. is going to vary given a team’s pitching and home park, but the overall numbers are a good start.
So I figure you want to score more than 3 runs. (And, more than 7 is great, but shows diminishing returns.) Here’s the pct of games in which the NL division leaders and WC contenders scored 0-3 runs:
Rockies-H 31.0
Dodgers 34.0
Phillies 35.2
Brewers 36.4
Marlins 38.9
Rockies 39.8
Astros 45.5
Cubs 47.3
Cardinals 47.3
Giants 47.7
Rockies-R 47.8
“Rockies” = overall, “-H” is Rockies in their home games, “-R” is road games.
Generally, the results show what one would expect–the higher the overall scoring avg, the less often a team will score 0-3 runs.
Rockies-home would be 1st, Rockies-Road 5th (4.48 runs/g). So the Rockies on the road are lagging behind.
I also looked at # of time scoring 8+ runs, and the top of that list (from highest %) is: Rockies-H, Rockies, Phillies, Rockies-R.
So it seems the Rockies on the road are the inconsistent ones. I’m not sure what they can do about, or if it’s improved under Tracy (likely, as just about everything seems better). Given that they have one of the better road records so far in team history, though, the variane doesn’t seem to be hurting them that much.
The offense has plenty of power with Iannetta and Stewart in the linuep. Combine those guys with Tulo’s power, that’s why we are scoring runs. But these guys will never be .300 hitters. Tulo I think can be a .280 type guys, but Iannetta will never hit above .260-.270. Stewart will always be prone to strikeouts too. Then with how streaky Barmes is, I don’t see the Rox getting consistent runs this year. There will be games they get shut down(especially on the road as Mike pointed out. Which has really always been the case with the Rox anyways.) Helton and Hawpe right now are the only two guys that can hit for average consistently. With that being said, Smith has to get more time. He has been lights out this year(he was also very good at the beginning of the year when he was starting a lot). I understand the CarGo situation, but it is time I think to send him back to AAA(cuz I don’t think it is wise to sit him on the bench. He needs to play everyday)and let Smith start. Spilly can start against lefties but to get our best offensive lineup on the field, Smith needs to be in there right now.
I think that Tracy is asking the right question. The pitching has been solid, and is at least equal to the rest of the NL with a healthy and solid Corpas and now Morales in the pen. But the offense? We are counting (and I agree with teh decision at this point) on two rookies in the OF who bring D and speed but not much average and still limited power (which I think will appear for both, especially CarGo). Our 2B is streaky but has good power nad should hit for close to .300 over the season. 3B has produced power and RBIs but no average. C has lots of power and OBP but needs to hit for more average. Hawpe and Helton have been great adn if they keep it up with carry the team. We need to get more ABs in the right situations to Spilly and Smith, perhaps 3 days a week for them intermixed with the two rookies. I think the bigger issue though it dropping someone else into the #4 hole. We have been killed by lefty specialist the past several weeks. Tulo or Ianetta in the #4? But then of course Hawpe moves down to #5, which cuts down on RBIs for him? Move Helton to #2? But Barmes has been great for the most part in that role. I dont think we can get a bat that is better than nine we can put out there, so no trades, but there needs to be a little more playing with teh lineup (not to the Hurdle degree, but some).
I remain confident. We will catch SF if we play like June, which this team without injuries can do.