Magic Numbers: 5 Games to Play
September 30, 2009 | 12:27 am
16 
By Tracy Ringolsby
Thorough games of Tuesday, Sept. 29:
Rockies magic number is 3 to eliminate Atlanta, and one to eliminate San Francisco. Florida and the Chicago Cubs were officially eliminated with the Rockies victory against Milwaukee on Tuesday.
So what if the Rockies go:
5-0, 4-1 or 3-2, they win the NL wild-card.
2-3, Atlanta has to go 5-0 to force a tiebreaker in Atlanta on Monday.
1-4, Atlanta has to go 5-0 to win, 4-1 to force a tiebreaker in Atlanta on Monday.
0-5, Atlanta has to go 4-1 to win, 3-2 to force a tiebreaker.
Tagged:
AND hopefully the NL West for the first time!
Man, I’m not one to look ahead. But forgive me for paying very close attention to the Cards and Phils the rest of the way. I feel confident in our chances against the Cards and the Dodgers, but the Phils really scare me.
Sorry to disagree but all the scenarios above other than the first one, requires a tiebreaker.
The only way the Braves can get the wild card is if the Rockies lose 4 games or more including the Tiebreaker game.
The Rockies need 3, the Braves need 9 total possible left is 10 or 12 with the Tiebreaker.
So what if the Rockies go:
5-0, 4-1 or 3-2, they win the NL wild-card.
2-3, Atlanta has to go 5-0 to play a tiebreaker game.
1-4, Atlanta has to go 5-0 to win, 4-1 to play a tiebreaker game
0-5, Atlanta has to go 4-1 to win, 3-2 to play a tiebreaker.
Alternatively If the Braves go:
2-3, 1-4, or 0-5 The Rockies get the Wild Card.
3-2, The Rockies need to go 1-4 to get the Wild Card
4-1, The Rockies need to go 2-3 to get the Wild Card
5-0, The Rockies need to go 3-3 to get the Wild Card
Frank, don’t be sorry. Thanks for the help.
Mr. Ringolsby:
I am a bit confused by all the references to the Dodgers needing one more win to clinch the NL West. Assuming LA wins only one more game and the Rox win out, this would leave the teams with an identical 94-68 record. Would this not require a one game play-off for the NL West title?
John,
Since both teams would be in the playoffs, MLB would forgo a tiebreaker game. Since L.A. has the better head-to-head record (putting it mildly) they would win the division.
Brett,
Philly has serious bullpen issues and the Rockies have the ability to grind through tough games and win late. So I like their chances against Philly.
John, Jeff S., is correct. Because both teams would be advancing to the post-season there is no playoff game. The team that receives the NL West seed is the one with the better record head-to-head, which is the Dodgers, and the other team, the Rockies, becomes the wild-card. The thinking on this is that since both teams are going to the playoffs, it does not make sense to add the burden of an additional game and the drain on a pitching staff of the playoff. It was similar a few years back when Houston and St. Louis tied in the NL Central.
Looks like a favorable matchup in Atlanta for the Rockies tonight.
Vazquez pitches for the Braves against the Marlins, and he has given up 5 ER in his last two starts against Florida, on August 21 and September 2 (12 IP, 17 Hits, 10 Earned Runs, 7.50 ERA in those two starts). Vazquez also is 6-7 with a career 4.88 ERA against the Marlins in 125.1 career innings.
Looks a little more even in Colorado-
Hammel is 1-0 against the Brewers with a 3.00 ERA in 6 IP – granted a much shorter history but he has had some success against the Brewers. Suppan is 3-0 against the Rockies at Coors Field with a 3.75 ERA.
Would be nice to get the magic number down to 1 tonight.
Should have clarified that Vazquez has given up 5 ER in EACH of his last two starts for a total of 10 ER in his last two starts against the Marlins.
One more interesting sidenote on the Marlins trying to play spoiler in the Marlins-Braves game tonight: In 2007 the Marlins won 2 of 3 games at the NY Mets on the last weekend of the season to eliminate the Mets from a 3-way tie for the wildcard with the Padres and the Rockies.
If I understand it correctly, if the Mets had defeated the Marlins in one more game that weekend the 3-way tie for the wildcard would have created a 3 team mini-tournament format and forced the Rockies to win twice instead of the just the one time in the one-game playoff against the Padres that is forever etched in Rockies lore.
Orange and Blue, I believe you are correct on that one. I think had that happened, more talk of another wild card team and a three game series of wild cards may have happened by now instead of being a Peter Gammons idea (as far as I have heard he is the one that came up with it).
I am glad for the wild card, think back fifteen years and none of 2007 and this year would have happened had we had the pre 95 set up. Ok so technically still in it for the division, but you get my point.
Orange and Blue, I believe what would have been possible is who ever would have had the better head to head record among the three teams could have chosen to either host two games or play just one. If it chose to play just one, the other two teams would have played on Monday and then traveled to the team with the best record head-to-head for a winner advances.
Tracy,
Thanks for the clarification.
I went back and looked at it and if the Mets had defeated the Marlins that final Sunday in 2007 they would have been tied with the Phillies for 1st in the NL East with an 89-73 record, the same record as the Rockies’ and Padres’ 89-73 records in 2nd place in the NL West. I can’t imagine how the MLB rules would have resolved that scenario.
-Orange and Blue Horseshoe
If I remember correctly back in ’07, had the Phillies & Mets tied with the Padres & Rox with the same record, the loser of the Phils & Mets would have been out because they would than have 1 more loss.
The same scenario could also exist this season in the unlikely event the Phils, Braves, & Rox end up with identical records (91-71). The Phils & Braves would have a 1-game playoff to determine the East winner, the loser would than have a record of 91-72. Under that scenario, the Rox win the WC.
I could be wrong, but unless the rules have changed since ’07, that’s how it would play out.
Cisco Kid, that was the old rule, but after the Angels got short-shifted when they lost the playoff for the AL West with Seattle the rule was changed. What would have happened in 2007 is Phillies and Mets would have played off. The loser of that game and the Padres and Rockies then would have had the three-team playoff for the wild-card.
Leave your response!
Recent Comments
More at Inside The Rockies
More around the Web
Newsroom
Blogroll
Archives