Potential impact left-handed pitchers abound
As he does annually, my colleague Tracy Ringolsby compiled the Rockies Top 30 prospects for Baseball America. The abundance of not just left-handed pitchers but those with potential impact at the major league level is particularly striking when weighed against past years.
Tyler Matzek is rated the Rockies top prospect, followed by Christian Friedrich. Both are starters and both were No. 1 picks, Matzek this year and Friedrich in 2008. Reliever Rex Brothers, a future closer, was ranked eighth. He, too, was drafted this year, selected as a compensation pick between the first and second rounds.
Jonathan Vargas, a 20-year-old starter from Venezuela who spent 2009 at Rookie Casper after three years in the Dominican Summer League, was ranked No. 19. And reliever Matt Reynolds, who split last season between high Class A Modesto and Double-A Tulsa and could reach the big leagues during the 2010 season, was ranked No. 27.
Checking the top 30 prospects, LHPs appeared as follows with the ranking in parenthesis:
2009
Friedrich (3)
2008
Franklin Morales (1)
Keith Weiser (27)
2007
Morales (2)
2006
Morales (3)
2005
Jeff Francis (3)
Chris Naverson (15)
2004
Francis (3)
Zack Parker (8)
Justin Hampson (27)
Aaron Marsden (30)
2003
Parker (8)
Francis (9)
Cory Vance (23)
2002
Josh Kalinowski (14)
Vance (15)
Brian Fuentes (18)
Parker (24)
2001
Kalinowski (9)
Randy Dorame (13)
Vance (15)
Chuck Crowder (21)
Tim Christman (25)
Player development director Marc Gustafson, when considering the likes of Matzek, Friedrich, Brothers, Vargas and Reynolds to the 2001 group, the last to have five LHPs in the top 30 said, “No disrespect to the guys…but when you compare the Christmans and the Dorames and the likes of what you just mentioned, there’s no comparison in my estimation on the talent level and impact level. This is high-end talent.”
Development is far from linear, by no means predictable and filled with inevitable disappointments. But the Rockies would appear to be in a sweet spot and an unprecedented one as far as left-handed pitching prospects.
thanks Jack it is nice that you cover the minors and the ins and outs of the game during the “off-season”
Jack,
Do you see so many of our top 10 prospects from the 2009 draft as statement about how strong our draft was or that our farm system was not as strong?
Also, while I can’t help to be delighted that we are scoring on our top round picks, how are we doing with the lower rounds? With Hawpe, Holliday, Young, Ianetta, Barmes, Spilly, Fowler and so on all coming from lower rounds, I have been amazed at the depth of our drafting.
I couldn’t be happier with our prospects from the latin program. What % of the player develoment budget is spent there? And, if that budget was doubled, what sort of difference would you expect?
Thanks in advance for your comments.
Chris
That the Top 10 has so many from the 2009 draft is a reflection of both issues, I think. The Rockies had 3 1st rounders and potential (high ceiling) is a big part of making a prospect list. So that’s a plus. OTOH, the system was relatively weak in position player prospects (esp. when considering that ceiling is an important part of what makes a player a prospect), so it made it easier for 2009 draftees to crack the top 10.
One thing about Fowler-he was drafted in the 14th round but fell that far due to signability concerns. I believe he was seen as having 1st or 2nd round talent, but teams were convinced he was going to college.
I’m not sure what a “late round” pick is considered, but based on your names (Iannetta, 4th, Holliday-Spilly, 7th), some of these guys could contribute to future teams despite not achieving star level, a la Spilly:
Craig Baker (4th round, 2006) was left off the 40 man but could make the club in a couple years as a reliever as he’s been strong in the lower levels and the AFL;
Michael McKenry (7, 2006) is said to have strong defensive skils and looks like he might contribute at least as a backup catcher;
Brandon Hynick (8, 2006) was enticing enough to bring Contreras along with money;
Darin Holcomb (12, 2007) dropped off a bit in 2009 at Tulsa but was selected by the team to play in the AFL and may yet have a future at 3rd. I mention him because Marc Gustafson, the Rockies farm director mentioned Holcomb in an interview during the ’09 season, so presumably the Rockies see some potential in him.
Matt Reynolds (20, 2007) did well at Modesto and Tulsa and could contribute to the 2010 team as a lefty reliever;
Kiel Roling (6, 2008) and Mike Zuanich (28, 2008, and a UCSB Gaucho like Spilly) swung heavy enough bats in A ball last season to be intriguing. Can one of these guys keep developing into a Hawpe-level hitter? Possibly; they could also turn out be Joe Koshansky or Ryan Shealy.
There are some other guys kicking around, like OF Delta Cleary, who haven’t distinguished themselves, but are ultra-toolsy and still could surprise people.
Hi Mike,
Late round pick … In basketball, the top 10 overall picks could be considered a high round pick. Football would be day one picks. What would be baseball? 1 – 2 rounds? As I see the prospects for organizations in Baseball America, most are rounds 1 & 2 and from Latin America. In my mind, rounds 1 and 2 would be top rounds.
But, more than other sports, there seems to be opportunities for late round surprises in baseball. Your example of Delta Clearly. I was thinking of Tyler Massey.
The best case scenario is our top round picks are our best players. Indeed, the scouts deemed them so on draft day. There is no doubt we have done exceedingly well on our first rounds picks (Nelson & Reynolds???) since Francis.
However, especially in baseball, some of the lower round picks can make a difference at the top level.
Great Rockies stuff!
Thanks guys – Tracy, Jack, etal.