Spring countdown discussion: Shortstop
The Colorado Rockies decided about 10 years ago to build around their slugging first baseman. Now, while the team is no longer built around a single player, Troy Tulowitzki anchors the middle of the lineup and the middle of the diamond, making shortstop the one position where the Rockies have no questions.
Who’s starting: Tulowitzki was able to put a disappointing sophomore season behind him and return to the form that nearly won him the Rookie of the Year trophy in 2007. In 2009, He set career highs in batting average (.297), on-base percentage (.377), home runs (32) and walks (73) while adding more speed to his game — he owned just 11 career stolen bases coming into the 2009, but stole 20 last season alone. Tulowitzki finished fifth in National League MVP voting, and his defense anchors what is arguably the best defensive infield in the league. It’s not a coincidence that when Tulowitzki was at his best in 2007 and 2009, the Rockies made the playoffs.
Who’s backing up: Clint Barmes is expected to keep the starting job at second base this season, but he will again serve as Tulowitzki’s backup. Melvin Mora played primarily shortstop in 2000 and continued to play regularly at the position early in his career. But since 2003, he has played third base and the outfield. He could see some time at shortstop in a pinch with the Rockies, but barring an injury, Tulowitzki won’t see much time off anyway.
Who’s in the picture: With Tulowitzki locked in and able backups Barmes and Mora ready just in case, the Rockies shouldn’t be too concerned about the gap between what they have in the major leagues right now and the raw, promising prospects who are moving with stutter steps to the higher levels of the system. The Rockies will have a handful of players Kenny Perez signed to minor-league contracts and available until the Rockies can gauge how quickly their top middle infield prospects will be major-league ready.
Who’s in the future: Former first-round pick Chris Nelson should move to second base on a regular basis this season as he runs into the Tulowitzki roadblock in front of him and gets pushed by another rapid rising prospect behind him. Hector Gomez will see Double-A this season after coming on late last year at Single-A Modesto and finishing the season in the Arizona Fall League. He will stay at shortstop for the time being, but the roadblock looms ahead for him as well. How quickly he runs into it depends on his ability to stay healthy and cut down on his strikeouts.
Discuss: With no real question about who will be playing shortstop for the Rockies until 2014 at the earliest, the only question around Tulowitzki is whether he’s in his ideal spot in the lineup. He was pushed into the cleanup spot last season when Brad Hawpe began to slump and about one-third of his total at-bats came from that spot in the lineup. Surrounded again this season by left-handed hitters like Hawpe, Todd Helton, Ian Stewart and Carlos Gonzalez, he’s likely to remain in the cleanup spot. He has real power all over the ballpark, but he’s probably not going to hit 45-50 home runs. Is he a true No. 4 hitter? What’s the ideal spot for him in the lineup? If he doesn’t belong there, who does?
Coming Tuesday: Outfield
Actually I think Tulo in the 4 hole is one of the few non-question marks for the Rockies line up. His power numbers are solid though not gaudy that many would like for #4 hitter. His average, was great. His OB% was great (and remember he started the season with a batting stance that had him facing the press box)
Now….CarGo….he could be the best #4 hitter. He also could be the best, 1, 2, or # 3 hitter as well. How to best use him, and Helton will be interesting. Where do you bat Helton? He’s too slow for #2 Works pitchers too good for bottom of the order. But CarGo really looks like a #3 hitter and better than Helton.
Batting order will be interesting to see how it shakes out as the season goes along.
My line up would be:
CarGo
Fowler (and end the switch hitting experiment)
Helton (praying he doesn’t fall off due to age)
Tulo
Hawpe (needs to bury 09 2nd half)
Stewart (yeah, 2 lefties in a row)
Barmes
Iannetta (use power to produce runs before Pitcher)
P
I disagree with the top of that lineup, redhawk. Fowler and Cargo should be switched, as Cargo leading off limits the usefulness of his power. Since Dex has less power and is super speedy, he should lead off.
Troy is on the verge of a breakout year establishing himself with Hanley Ramirez as the two best ML players behind Albert. To do this, he needs to lift his average into the .330 range and repeat the homer total. If he can do that, he will need to cut down on strikeouts, shortening his swing with two strikes – and the team will prosper as well as Troy. He is the only right handed option for the clean up role – Iannetta is not ready and may never be despite his power potential. With Troy leading the way, he will get recognition as the “Rockies star” and bring attention to the other Rockies who deserve it; there could be a whole host of deserving young candidates – Gonzales, Stewart, Jimenez, De La Rosa, Street, Fowler, Iannetta and Smith. This group of young men have a chance to develop into something special and Tulowitzki is there, right now, to lead the way.
What is the situation with Jonathan Herrera? He’s dropped off the radar since his brief stint during Tulo’s injury in 2008.
As far as I know, Herrara is still in the organization, but that’s a better question for Jack. Whether or not he is still with the Rockies, he has slipped out the picture with EY Jr. and now Holcomb, Nelson and Gomez moving up through the system.
As for the lineup, it seems inevitable that Fowler and Gonzalez are going to occupy the first two spots in the lineup in some order. Fowler said last year he prefers to bat second in the lineup and he hit slightly better (albeit with a much smaller sample size) in the No. 2 spot. Two arguments about where Gonzalez should hit: first, as a leadoff hitter he gets fewer RBI opportunities and as one of the Rockies’ most consistent RBI threats late in the season, it’s tough not to give him as many opportunities as possible; however, when he’s batting leadoff, he tends to be much more patient at the plate (13 walks and 24 strikeouts hitting leadoff, one walk and 13 strikeouts hitting second). He really took off last season when started to take pitches and force pitchers to throw something closer to the strike zone. I would prefer to see him stay in the leadoff spot until he matures a little as a hitter, but in the long run he’s probably a middle-of-the-lineup hitter like Carlos Beltran.
Tulo seems like a more natural No. 3 hitter, but with the number of lefties around him he’s been slotted into the cleanup spot. Stewart, with his pure power, could develop into a truer cleanup hitter over the next couple years.
Did Omar Quintanilla sign a minor league contract with the Rockies?
I totally overlooked Omar. He was outrighted to Colorado Springs and removed from the 40-man roster after the season and is, as far as I know, still part of the organization. So he, too, is in the picture. Wouldn’t surprise me, though, if he was gone by the end of spring training to a team that needed a strong defensive middle infielder off the bench.
Part of the Tulo rebound wa directly attributable to his positioning in the #4 hole of the order. Is Tulo a prototypical 45 homer #4 hitter – no, however the #4 position in the order perfectly fits his approach at the plate. He doesn’t have to be patient while the speed guys try to steel, work the count, or even hit to the right side of the field – that’s not his game. Let em’ swing – it worked last year.
It is not an exaggeration – that as Tulo goes so go the Rockies!
The better question might be how to get Tulo started fast from April?
If that should ever happen, you are looking at the NL MVP and another World Series appearance
Rich, I like your point about how his batting fourth suited his aggressiveness last season. A problem the Rockies had a few years ago was that they seemed too patient. With Helton, Hawpe and Atkins taking pitches and pitchers pitching around Holliday, it seemed that often the Rockies would watch borderline pitches and end up loading the bases for their No. 7 hitter. With Gonzalez and Fowler moving around the bases at one and two and Helton making a pitcher work, Tulo gets to act as a hammer in cleanup. The concern, though, is that unless someone behind him is hitting well enough to protect him, Tulo’s aggressiveness could get the better of him if pitchers just stop throwing to him. That brings us back to how important the bottom half the Rockies order is.
If there is any room on the bases, the lefty pitcher especially will almost certainly pitch around Tulo to get to Hawpe and Stewart. And this is exactly where the value of the power right handed bat was and still is really needed. So for now its left up to Hawpe, Iannetta, Stewart and even Barmes to hit effectively enough to make the opposing pitchers pitch to Tulo.
A few other prospects out there courtesy of my Baseball America Prospect Handbook finally arriving: Helder Valezquez and Jason Van Kooten at shortstop and Joe Sanders at third base. Valezquez was a fifth-rounder in 2006 and has struggled to keep his strikeouts down. But he’s moving a level at a time and is still only 21. Van Kooten’s pushing it after spending parts of the past three seasons at Single-A, but he did bust out a bit and showed some pop last season. As for Sanders, it’s really too early to tell — he was just drafted last season — but Tracy has him rated ahead of Darin Holcomb in the handbook. None of these guys are in the Rockies Top 30 prospects. For what it’s worth, Tracy has Gomez has No. 5 in the system and Nelson at No. 29.
I like Fowler in the lead off spot, because I think he’ll turn into a pretty good base stealer. If he can get on and steal second, with less than two outs, there’s a good chance he can score somehow. I admit it, I love small ball. There’s more strategy, and more fun to watch, in small ball than there is in a three run homer. Plus small ball will drive up the opposing pitcher’s pitch count.
I’d love to see Barmes hit second. The question is, can he learn to lay off the low and away pitch? Since I’m making up my dream Rocks line up, I’m going to say/dream he’ll learn to lay off enough by shortening his swing by learning to slap the ball around instead of swinging for the fences. He won’t hit as many HR’s, but we don’t need him to hit them out, only to hit to the right side and move the runner along. So he’s second.
That would allow CarGo to move to third…
So, make mine
1) Fowler – Run Dexter, Run
2) Barmes – I’m betting he learns and can go back to where JTracy likes him.
3) CarGo – He can hit anywhere in the lineup. He may be our best overall hitter by the end of the season. Sign this guy up with a long term contract next off season…
4) Tulo – No, he’s not a prototypical 4 hitter, but the Rocks win with their defense, not by knocking the ball out of the park. They just need to score enough runs to win most of their games. Tulo has good contact and decent power. I’m saying he’ll hit over .300 this year and around 120 RBI’s. Good enough.
5) Helton – We need someone needs to protect Tulowitzki. Todd can do it. As long ash he plays, Todd will always have a good enough average to hit any places in the lineup after the two slot. His HR power may not be what it used to, but he is a doubles machine.
6) Stewart – He can sit here and drive in some runs with the long ball if everyone else in front of him does their job and gets on base regularly.
7) Other outfielder du jour – It may not be Hawpe every day. Smith will look good in left a lot of days. One of the reasons they signed Giambi is to allow Smith to play more days in the outfield and still keep a lefty PH on the bench
9) Pitcher’s slot
I know, there’s a couple of if’s in my lineup, but those are not out of the question if’s. Barmes is the biggest if, but he has had stretches where he can definitely hit in the two hole.
One last thing, I just have a feeling one of the outfielders will be traded to bring in a proven reliever. Smith or Hawpe. Guessing Hawpe. But we can discuss that as the outfielders come up for discussion over the next few days.
Play ball!
@ Trip
I do like your lineup, but that most likely will not be the lineup…not at least for opening day. I don’t think, unless he has a miracle ST, Barmes will bat second off the bat – (considering the second have he had. )
I really like the idea of Helton protecting Tulo. Also, I think a more experienced Fowler can have a OBP of .380, now having a .380 OBP for lead off is solid.
I agree that it would be nice to move Cargo to the three hole, but I feel that any scenario where Helton moves is unlikely. The five-hole is certainly where I would put him, though, since his average would be useful there and he wouldn’t have any “barely faster than a glacier” issues.
Barmes will need to demonstrate consistency to move to the two spot, which I see as more likely to go to Smith (assuming Hawpe leaves, a benching for that amount of money is hard to swallow)
Helton needs to be number three. He is the rockies most consistent hitter and has a high OBP, makes the cleanup spot a bit easier if there is traffic.
1-gonzalez
2-fowler
3-helton
4-tulo
5-hawpe
6-Ianetta
7-Stewart
8-Barmes
This breaks up the lefties and makes it a lot harder for apposing teams to have to go left right out of the bullpen
Alright the truth is I am bitter because Barmes was on my fantasy team last year. However this unconditional love for Barmes is beyond rational explanation and way out of control.
The hitter in the #2 hole needs to have the best bat control on the team especially if he is a righty trying to hit the ball behind the runner in the 1st-2nd gap. Sorry Trip – Barmes in the #2 hole makes no sense to me, unless he somehow reinvents himself as a hitter.
Also this is exactly why Tulo wasn’t the best fit in the #2 hole, as his plate approach and usual dead pull hitter tendancies are much better suited in the middle of the order.
Anonymous got it right unless DanO has another move up his sleeve!
once again, great great website to all (Tracy, Steve, etc). Definitely gets my Rockies fix in to be able to chat with other baseball geeks who aren’t bitter and just like to discuss the game (and team) we love.
Trip-I think i’m 50/50 on Helton going to the 5 hole. Something to think about (maybe) I think Stewart may actually protect Todd a bit in that situation. Honestly, I’m not sure how much Todd is pitched around or intentionally walked these days (if it hardly happens its a moot point, but Todd also has the patience to draw the walk), but walking Helton to get to Stewart could be a real positive for the Rockies. Not sure if there’s any viability in this comment, just something that popped into my head. In theory, he gets more AB’s at #3, but would he have a greater chance of coming up with guys on base at #5 ?? (not sure what the stats say). A fun debate at the least!
How many days until we start??? Can’t wait.
Anonymous has the right order in my opinion. The only caveat would be that Stewart and Hawpe could switch spots based on who is hotter at the time. The same is also true of Ianetta and Barmes. As Helton’s decline accelerates in the next few years he will slowly sink down the batting order, and probably end his career in the 6 or 7 hole with an improving in his prime Stewart or CarGo taking his place hopefully. I don’t see this beginning to happen until next year at the earliest.
I think Tulo ends up in the 4 or 5 hole for awhile given the number of young left handed hitters on the roster. The Rockies have a good core of young hitters with Helton being the only real “old man” of the group. Offensively they are in a good position for the long term, and if O’Dowd can keep a competitive rotation and bullpen stocked up the Rox should be contenders for awhile.
I feel like fowler has all of the tools to be a great leadoff hitter. I think his speed, improved plate patience, and his security of his roster spot this year will catapult him into a great season. Cargo’s unlimited avg. potential makes me wanna hit him in the 5 hole considering 1,3, and 4 are pretty much a lock.
My lineup, for what is worth:
Fowler
Stewart
Helton
Tulo
Cargo
Hawpe
Iannetta
Barmes
Pitcher
Stewart in the 2 spot?? maybe not, but i’m not thrilled with barmes hitting there, and not confident with any other person right now.
I think Cargo is going to have a fantastic season. I just hope no one else in my fantasy league knows about his potential emergence.
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