Spring countdown discussion: Outfield
To talk about any outfield position for the Colorado Rockies is to talk about all outfield positions. The Rockies have three clear starters, but a deep bench of outfielders who can play multiple positions will mean plenty of mixing and matching to create the best possible matchups this season.
Who’s starting in left: Carlos Gonzalez might be the team’s best center fielder and the team’s best right fielder, but he will spend most of his time in left field. The Rockies recalled Gonzalez in early June and struggled to find playing time for him as he struggled to avoid swinging at bad pitches. In July, he cut down his strikeouts (nine in 44 at-bats in July against 21 in 62 at-bats in June) and began to see more playing time late in the month. He exploded in August and September, forced his way into the everyday lineup and began bouncing between the top two spots in the order. He finished the season at .284 with 13 home runs 29 RBI and 16 stolen bases. In the playoffs he simply was the Rockies offense as he hit .588 with a 1.514 OPS. He still has a big swing and tendency to be aggressive, but if a pitcher puts the ball near the plate he can hit it. He is likely to return to one top two spots in the order to start this season. But as long as he continues to mature as a hitter, he should settle into the middle of the lineup one day.
Who’s starting in center: Dexter Fowler’s rookie season was overshadowed a bit by Gonzalez’s arrival, but it was no less promising. Without playing a day at Triple-A, Fowler found himself leading off and playing center field in the major leagues for the bulk of 2009. He played quietly solid baseball all season, finishing at .266 with 73 runs scored and 27 stolen bases. More impressive perhaps — especially for a hitter who only learned how to switch hit after joining the Rockies organization four years earlier — was the patience and poise he showed at the plate with a .363 on-base percentage. He showed very little power, but it should develop as he matures. Like Gonzalez, Fowler will be just 24 years old this season.
Who’s starting in right: Brad Hawpe played two separate seasons in 2009. Before the All-Star break, he hit .320 with 14 home runs and 59 RBI and missed by inches what would have been a go-ahead home run in the seventh inning of the All-Star Game. After the break, Hawpe went into a serious tailspin and managed just .240, 9 and 27 the rest of the season. In 2008, he balanced his once dramatically unbalanced lefty-righty splits (.282 against lefties, .283 against righties). In 2009, they were again out of whack (.243 against lefties, .303 against righties). Early in the offseason, there was talk Hawpe would be traded, but general manager insisted it would take a haul like what the team received for Matt Holliday to part with Hawpe. With a glut of corner outfielders already on the market, Hawpe has stayed put. Barring a late-developing trade, he will be back in the Rockies outfield again.
Who’s backing up: Seth Smith had a breakout season for the Rockies in 2009 and nearly pushed Hawpe out of Denver. Mr. Seventh Inning Or Later, Smith hit a stunning .472 as a pinch hitter and .336 with eight of his 15 home runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Smith can play all three outfield positions adequately, but is best in left field where he will see most of his playing time with Gonzalez occasionally shifting to center and right to make room. Ryan Spilborghs — another outfielder rumored to be trade bait in the offseason — likely returns as the primary right-handed bat off the bench and insurance at all three outfield positions. A trade is still possible, but not likely. Melvin Mora could also see some time at the corner outfield positions as the Rockies try to find at-bats for everyone on their deep bench.
Who’s in the picture: With the signings of Jason Giambi and Mora, Eric Young Jr. is on the bubble to make the Opening Day roster. The Rockies used him at second base and center field during his month with the team late last season, but left field would be a better fit for his arm and defense. Jay Payton and Paul LoDuca — each signed to a minor-league contract and invited to spring training — provide some insurance. Matt Miller had another strong year offensively at Triple-A in 2009, but the 27-year-old outfielder’s defense has kept him out of Coors Field. Chris Frey, Ryan Harvey, Cole Garner, Alex Escobar and Bronson Sardinha also will be trying to force their way into the picture.
Who’s in the future: With a deep group of young outfielders already fighting for playing time in the major leagues, the Rockies won’t be needing reinforcements for a couple years. Fortunately for the team, that’s about the time a wave of their better outfield prospects will be trying to crack the major-league roster. Charlie Blackmon, a 2008 second-round pick, will move up to Double-A Tulsa after a big year at Modesto and has good speed and some developing power. Tim Wheeler, the second of the Rockies’ two first-round picks in 2009, is already fairly advanced and should start at high Single-A Modesto. He will likely continue to play center field in the minors, but he could eventually replace Hawpe in right field. The speedy Delta Cleary is still raw and had a ho hum year for Asheville, but he’s just 20 years old and should take another step through the system. Tyler Massey, a 14th-rounder in 2008 who the Rockies convinced to drop a baseball scholarship to Virginia, had disappointing year (.220 with two home runs) at Asheville and could return there this season. But the Rockies still have hope for him. Kent Matthes, a fourth-round pick last season who can play either corner outfield spot, could move quickly through the system after a strong debut at Tri-City.
Discuss: The Rockies have no question about the level of talent in the outfield. Behind the three likely regulars — Gonzalez, Fowler and Hawpe — the Rockies have a shadow outfield that not long ago would have been nearly acceptable as the starting outfield — Smith, Young and Spilborghs. The depth gives the Rockies some trading chips in spring training, at the deadline or after the season if needed. As we learned in September when the Rockies were playing with an expanded roster, manager Jim Tracy loves to play around with double switches and isn’t shy about burning his bench early in the game if the situation calls for it. So while a trade is possible, it’s not necessarily likely as Tracy tries to hold on to as many strong options off the bench as possible. There are so many things to talk about related to the outfield, so let’s just throw out a few topics and see where it goes. Should Hawpe be traded at some point this season or after the season? What about Spilly? Anyone worried about a sophomore slump from Gonzalez (technically he’s a junior, but last year felt a lot like a rookie season for him)? Which young outfielder takes the biggest step forward in 2010: Gonzalez, Fowler or Smith? Where does Young fit into this mess and what’s more important: Young getting regular at-bats or the Rockies having access to his speed even if it’s off the bench? When Payton last played for the Rockies he was part of an outfield that included Preston Wilson and Larry Walker; how does this outfield compare to that one? What about to the Blake Street Bombers glory days of Dante Bichette, Ellis Burks and Walker?
Hawpe should not be traded, unless he continues to flail away. His character and his arm strength (and the respect that the arm commands) are intangibles – I’ve been to many games at Coors Field when the opposing third base coach has held a runner at 2nd because of Brad’s gun. I believe that Brad will return to solid offensive numbers this upcoming season.
I love Spilly. His personality and his all out playing style fits here; it’s just what the team requires. He also will put up more normal numbers this season – although he may not be satisfied with his AB’s and playing time.
Seth Smith must be kept. He gets it done. Period.
That leaves EY2 – he needs the reps in the minors. While I love his blazing speed, his day is yet to come. He will be a regular at Coors Field, but maybe not this season.
With the surplus of outfielders the Rockies have a trade is not out of the equation. Spilly and Hawpe are probably the likely candidates. Hawpe should be traded if managment believes his trade value now outweighs his long term value later. If the trade is perceived as a net benefit for the teams involved, a trade will happen. I don’t think we are at that point right now, especially with Hawpe’s decline in the last half of the year. If Hawpe gets off to a good start this year, and if the Rox need a strong starting pitcher down the stretch from a team not in a pennant race then Hawpe could become a target. I would think prospects (EY2, Gomez, etc.) would be targeted first in this scenario, but to get a trade done Hawpe may become a piece of those discussions.
Spilly should not be traded unless its for another power right handed outfielder. What little right handed outfield power the Rocks have comes from Spilly.
As much as I like Hawpe, I do think he will be traded at some point in the season, only so that he doesn’t eat up the at bats that Smith, Cargo and Fowler need to develop their hitting games. If the power starts to develop from those three youngsters – look out!
My only concern with the outfield is that both Cargo and Fowler are represented by Scott Boras. Once they hit free agency, they will very likely be gone – see Matt Holiday.
BTW – just for the fun of it – could you imagine a better outfield than Holiday, Fowler and Cargo (left, center and right). And yes I know that the Rocks only got Cargo because of the Holiday trade.
We are loaded in OF.
I don’t see a point in trading Spilly or Seth Smith. What could you possibly get in return? Their value is maximized here as they are cheap yet productive.
The best return on investment is made by trading Hawpe. So what do you trade him for? Propects? Pitching? Not if you plan on improving immediately.
Personally I think the optimal return that could also get us back in contention for the title would be for a starting infielder (either 3B or 2nd) who can swing the bat. You find a player on a team that is in a similar situation as Hawpe. A player nearing FA in a crowded system. Plus if we throw in Barmes we should expect someone even better.
IMO that player is Dan Uggla.
How about this lineup:
Fowler
Uggla
Gonzales
Tulo
Helton
Stewart
Smith
Ianetta
Thats possibly the best lineup in the NL.
I would like to see Hawpe take some abs at first to help open up abs for the other outfielders and rest helton a bit, it will have to be seen in spring training if he could fill in adequately. But i feel the best OF is Hawpe who will bounce back strong, cargo and fowler will both improve on pretty good “rookie” years. Smith, Mora and Spilly will make for great depth and the best team/bench depth in the entire MLB. This outfield is going to be really good…. just not as good as the blake street bombers though. Walker was a stud in right, better than cargo is now, Burks is better than Fowler is now, and Hawpe and Bichette are about the same defensively range wise but Hawpe does have the better arm. Offensively i would take the blake street bombers too everyone could go get 30 hr 30 st and good rbi numbers in any year. It will be interesting to see how these guys mature and get better with age they may even become the Rockies best OF ever.
Hawpe played most of his early minor league career at first base, so he can play there if needed. However if Helton is healthy and Giambi remains on the roster, he won’t get the chance at least for 2010.
It’s interesting to hear all of these scenarios from everyone, but I feel like the most likely trade this year will be Giambi going to an AL team to make room for EY2. It makes the most sense to me and we could probably get a mid-level prospect for Giambi. Besides, he deserves to DH somewhere.
My next question is, did Hawpe’s confidence suffer after being benched in the NLDS last year? You have to wonder. I like the idea of Tim Wheeler taking Hawpe’s place in a few years. Keep an eye out for that kid.
Hawpe’s confidence was pretty much shot by the NLDS, but a benching certainly didn’t help it. That said, Hawpe’s a pretty level-headed guy so I doubt it will have any long-term effect.
Not saying the Rockies will, but if they decided to trade Hawpe, chances are they would get more for him at the deadline than was available this offseason. With Johnny Damon and Randy Winn (among others) on the market for most of the offseason, no one was likely to give the Rockies top talent for Hawpe. A left-handed corner outfielder/first baseman with some pop, however, might be on some wish lists again by midseason. In any case, the depth the Rockies have in the outfield and the relative stability at all other positions allows them to not overreact and trade for the sake of a trade. They can see what happens at second base, wait to see how Stewart and Iannetta develop or if Jeff Francis is healthy, and use their depth to fill holes if/when they develop. And as noted above, Tracy loves to use his bench. No one has talked much about it, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that the Rockies could go with 11 pitchers for stretches instead of their usual 12 if the starting pitching is as reliable as it was last season.
In terms of depth the Rockies outfield has to be considered the strength of the team, especiall since Mora can also play there in a pinch. Gonzo is a real key this year. If he continues to play like he did the 2nd half of the season (no way he keeps playing like in the NLDS) then they have a stud on their hands. But, if he regresses, then that opens up more AB for Smith/Spilly. I can imagine a starting OF of Gonzo, Fowler, and Hawpe hitting a collective .310, 60 HR, 250+ RBI’s, and 70 SB’s. Add Smith and Spilly off the bench and I can’t see a better 5 man rotation in all of baseball. If anyone is to get traded it has to be either Hawpe or Smith. Hawpe has a pretty team-friendly contract and Smith is valuable, but probably replaceable.
A really great piece on CarGo on the front page of mlb.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100209&content_id=8047254&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
For my money considering the way Coors plays now, I would take an outfield of CarGo, Dex, and either Hawper or Smith as the best OF the Rocks have had. The D makes the difference and in this era D has returned to its correct prominence. You could make an argument that if both Dex and CarGo take the next step that this is the best OF in baseball. Between the IF D and the OF D and O, the lineup the Rocks put out there should be solid day-in and day-out. My biggest concern is getting enough ABs to keep everyone sharp. Oh, and if we learned anything last year its that even if CarGo is struggling at the plate he will be in the line-up – he brings too much else to the game.
Don’t worry about the Boras effect. Yes, it means we will not lock up these guys by buying out their arbitration years, but if this team is successful, fills Coors, and manages its money its not impossible to see one of the two being here for years. But we have both for a number of years to come, so many that any player at High A or above is going to have wait to get on the field in either CF or LF.
The Rockies OF depth is a strength. Because of that, I hope they can weather any sophomore slump by CarGo (which I really don’t see because of his physical tools) or Fowler (who I do worry about as he was over matched, and looks very awkward from the left side). Hawpe also needs to rebound from his 2nd half flop. And here is where things get interesting. If he DOES rebound, he’s not trade-able, but will be valuable to the Rockies as they try to win their first Divisional title. If he performs like he did 2nd half of 09, he’ll be hard to move for anything useful.
Best Rockies OF? Blake St Bombers, but I do think the the Payton, P-duwb, Walker OF, was under-rated. Now if this OF really all click this year, (Hawpe bounces back, CarGo and Fowler continue to grow and improve) it could be right up there.
I keep getting this recurring dream (while I’m awake, that is), of a line-up that starts with EY Jr., then Dexter Fowler hitting second, and Cargo batting third. I realize that this is probably year or so away at best, but can you imagine the havoc wreaked on the opposing pitcher and the stress on the other teams defense? Then you have hitters like Tulo, Hawpe, Seth Smith and Ian Stewart seeing more fastballs in hitters counts. It could be a track meet on the bases. Not to mention, Tulo,Stew and Smith run the bases very well themselves. In any case, the Rockies outfield defense will be as good as anybody’s in baseball. As the saying goes, “speed never has a bad day”! Now, if Corpas and Taylor Bucholz can get healthy and pitch the way they did in 2007 (Corpas) and 2008 (Bucholz), the Rockies will be competing with the Phillies for NL title.
Hope Hawpe gets off to another great start this season and deal him, especially if Smith shows he can play everyday. He is established enough to have some good mid-season trade value. Plus, his contract makes him the odd man out: $7.5 mill this year with a club option for $10 mill in 2011. With the potential number of young studs emerging that will demand $$$ and our limited funds, it makes no sense to pay Hawpe $10 mill. It would also be dumb to get nothing for him in free agency. So get a quality arm for him this year in a trade and put that money towards locking down whoever emerges as the biggest stud this year to keep Tulo company, and the Rox in the playoffs, for years to come.
ProgMatinee, while I love that lineup, Uggla’s ugly defense is a huge minus when the Rox’s have been so successful since becoming such a great defensive squad.
Also, a question: Is it just me or should Fowler go back to just hitting right-handed? He hit .321 righty last year and .241 lefty. I know it will be slightly different when he has to face righties while hitting right-handed all the time, but still 80 points is pretty extreme. And the Rox have enough, if not too many, lefty bats.
Man am I excited for this season! Between CarGo, Fowler, Smith, EY Jr., Stewart, and Iannetta, a couple of guys have to emerge as bona fide ballers.
Leave your response!
Popular tags
aaron cook brad hawpe carlos gonzalez chris iannetta clint barmes dexter fowler franklin morales garrett atkins greg smith huston street ian stewart jason hammel jason marquis jim tracy jorge de la rosa josh fogg matt belisle matt murton ryan speier ryan spilborghs seth smith todd helton troy tulowitzki ubaldo jimenez yorvit torrealbaRecent Comments
Newsroom
Reference Room
Blogroll
Archives