Spring countdown discussion: Starting pitching
Five starting pitchers accounted for 155 of the Colorado Rockies’ 162 starts in 2009, unheard of stability for a franchise whose pitching staff at times has been one of baseball’s most tired jokes. The Rockies likely will see one change in their starting rotation in 2010, and that to welcome back an old friend.
Ubaldo Jimenez: After years of developing quality No. 2 or No. 3 starters and pressing them into service as No. 1s, the Rockies are looking at the emergence of their first true ace. Jimenez struggled in April for a second consecutive season — his ERA stood at 6.58 on May 1 — but finished 2009 at 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA, setting career bests in wins, ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts and cutting his bases on balls from 103 to 85. During one stretch from the beginning of August until early September, Jimenez pitched eight innings in five of seven starts and never allowed more than two earned runs in a game. He is the rubber-armed giant the Rockies have needed from the beginning, a pitcher who can coast through innings by inducing weak ground balls but gets the strikeout when he needs it. He often struggles early in games, but settles in the second and third times through an order. One day — perhaps it will come this season — Jimenez will understand just how much better he is than nearly every hitter he faces and begin to dominate for weeks at a time, rather than innings at a time.
Aaron Cook: In 2007, Cook missed most of the Rockies postseason drama while on the disabled list to end the regular season. He nearly repeated it in 2009 when he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain late in August. Determined not to let it happen again, Cook returned for one last regular season start — as it turned out, the playoff clincher and one of the best games he pitched all season — and Game 2 of the NLDS. The Rockies’ winningest pitcher is one of those homegrown starters the Rockies have pigeonholed into the role of ace even though it was not a great fit. His success is determined by how well he is throwing one pitch, his sinker, and while he can quiet a team quickly when the pitch is on, he does not dominate game after game as Jimenez can. Cook will continue to benefit from Jimenez’s emergence. No longer counted on to carry a mediocre pitching staff, Cook is now the efficient sinkerballer sandwiched between two guys with nasty stuff.
Jorge De La Rosa: In his second season with the Rockies, De La Rosa finally showed why the team has been so patient with him, first waiting nearly two months to finish a trade for him with the Royals in 2008 then continuing to run him back out to the mound when he was sitting at 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA at the end May last season. Facing a demotion, De La Rosa turned his season around at exactly the moment the team as a whole turned its season around. De La Rosa was 9-1 in June and July and 16-3 following his 0-6 start. On Sept. 16, he pitched one of the biggest games in Rockies history when he shut out the Giants for eight innings in San Francisco to end a four-game losing streak that had put their wild-card lead in jeopardy. The Rockies avoided arbitration with De La Rosa this offseason by signing him to just a one-year deal, making him a free agent after this season. He still has a hit-0r-miss quality about him, but the Rockies believe his extended run of good starts last season wasn’t a fluke.
Jeff Francis: Francis spent all of 2009 rehabbing after shoulder surgery and playing goodwill ambassador by regularly catching ceremonial first pitches at Coors Field. His rehab progressed ahead of schedule and there were rumblings late in the season that Francis would be available for the postseason. The Rockies didn’t press him into service and decided to let the Francis — like Cook, more of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter who became an ace by default — ease back into the rotation knowing Jason Marquis would likely be gone after the season. Francis is in the last year of his contract, but the team has an option for 2011 that would come at a reasonable price if Francis returns close to his 2007 form — 17-9, 4.22, 215 1/3 innings — and is able to pretend that 2008, like 2009, never existed.
Jason Hammel: At times brilliant — like his eight-inning, five-hit performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers in July — and other times frustratingly inconsistent, Hammel nevertheless proved to be an adequate fifth starter for the Rockies. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays just before the season started, Hammel pitched four games out of the bullpen before taking over a spot in the rotation in late April. Hammel, like De La Rosa, avoided arbitration by signing a one-year deal in the offseason and is being pushed by a collection of live arms. He has the potential to be a solid innings eater if he can, unlike another tall Jason the Rockies gave up last season (Hirsh), use his height to his advantage and learn to trust his fastball.
Who’s in the picture: Jhoulys Chacin and Esmil Rogers, who each started one game for the Rockies in 2009, will be pushing for a spot with the Rockies out of spring training but are likely to start the season in Triple-A. Chacin has more refined stuff than Rogers, but he struggled with his command when he reached the majors, a problem he never had in the minor leagues. Greg Smith and former first-round pick Greg Reynolds are trying to come back from injuries and could be a factor at some point. Tim Redding, who the Rockies signed to a minor-league contract, will be fighting for the last spot in the bullpen and trying to force his way into the starting picture. Franklin Morales started 2009 in the Rockies rotation, but he looks like a fixture in the bullpen for the foreseeable future.
Who’s in the future: The Rockies will have one of their most promising collections of pitching prospects together in the starting rotation at Colorado Springs to start the season, but it’s the guy at Double-A who has them most excited. Christian Friedrich seems to be on the Jeff Francis schedule. He will start the season at Tulsa as Francis did when he made his major-league debut in 2004. The Rockies have gone out of their way to show patience with Friedrich, but he is forcing the issue. As Francis did, Friedrich could make brief move to Triple-A before a Coors Field debut late in the season. Samuel Deduno and Chaz Roe finally lived up their promise with strong seasons at Double-A, but find themselves slightly behind Chacin and Rogers, who they’re likely to join in the Sky Sox rotation. The Rockies pulled off a major coup by signing Tyler Matzek to a deal well below what he was rumored to be demanding. Juan Nicasio, Chris Balcolm-Miller and Jonathon Vargas are all promising, but too far away to know just how good they will be. Parker Frazier was about to start moving through the Rockies system before being injured last season and will miss most of 2010 after Tommy John surgery. Other names who could be factors: Keith Weiser, Cory Riordan and Bruce Billings.
Discuss: Despite the Rockies’ year-over-year stability in starting rotation, changes loom. The Rockies have Jimenez locked up through 2012 with very reasonable options for 2013 and 2014. Beyond that, the Rockies starting rotation should evolve as prospects — Chacin, Rogers, Deduno, Roe, Friedrich and Matzek — mature. Cook’s contract is up after 2011, although the Rockies have an option for 2012. Francis’ deal ends after the 2010, but as they do with Cook, the Rockies have the option to keep him around for another year. De La Rosa is a free agent after the season. Hammel will be eligibile for arbitration again. So who should the Rockies hold on to, who should they let walk? What does the starting rotation look like in 2011? 2014?
Coming Friday: Bullpen
Great update… I’d love to see the Rocks offer Chacin a reasonable shot at beating out Hammel for the rotation spot. If both are going to be pitching at a 5th starter level it would seem that we’re better off getting Chacin the experiece.
The only worry here that I have is that we’re going to have proven position players for the next several years without big changes, while at the same time trying to break in Chacin, Rodgers, Freidrich, and Matzik into being our core of starting pitching. The more we can spread out the growing pains of these guys, the better.
RocksFan, Jason Hammel was really underrated last season. You suggest he’ll pitch at a “5th starter level,” which top me suggests Josh Fogg, not a guy that won ten games and set a franchise record for strikeouts per walk. Chacin was uneven at AAA and the MLB level. There’s no reason to push aside a very strong back end starter to rush him. We have a solid talent at the big league level, so we can afford to let Chacin figure out his control issue in the Springs. A spot WILL be open in 2011 for one of our studs.
Chacin, Rogers and even Friedrich will be given decent shots to claim a spot in the rotation, but there would have to be no question about how they would perform to take a spot away from one of the presumed five.
What a great situation. I think that we should let the projected starting pitchers start the season if they are all healthy and pitching well, and let the younger guys get experience in the minors for another year. Injuries are a reality of the game, so some of the youngsters may get a few starts here and there for that reason.
Who will start the season as the long reliever/spot starter? Perhaps Greg Smith or Tim Redding could play that role.
It does appear that this is a position where we are well stocked. The opportunity may arise to trade a starting pitcher we don’t need for a prospect who plays a position where our system is not as well stocked.
Really, for the first time in team history, the Rockies have a rotation to be truly excited about. Top to bottom they arguably have the most solid (if not flashy) rotation in baseball. I agree with Andrew, I think Hammel is well above most 5th starters. There is no need to rush any of our young guns. When they are ready, they can slowly start to push out/down the current guys we have. I’d like to lock up DLR for a few more years as he finally seems to be harnessing his talent, but with our prospects that is less pressing. I also would like to keep Cook and Francis around if they would again sign team friendly contracts ($7-10 mil/yr), which does seem unlikely in this world of overpriced starting pitching.
2011: Jimenez, Cook, Francis, DLR (2-3 year extension at $7 mil/yr?, unless Friedrich or another is simply dominant in the minors), Chacin, possibly with Hammel the long man out of the bullpen
2014: Jimenez, Cook, Friedrich, Matzek, Chacin (with the possibility of one of the other prospects replacing one of these three, or possibly Cook if we are unable to lock him up for another 3-4 years)
This is a fun exercise, but of course it is impossible to predict. We can’t expect all these prospects to avoid injury and live up to their potential, but hopefully three or four will and can fill out the rotation behind Jimenez with home grown, relatively cheap talent.
No matter what happens, it is great to finally have a rotation we can be excited about and expect to be an asset, not a liability, both now and in the future.
Dave has it about right. But, the key pitcher for this year, to me, is DLR. I look at him as ahead of Jimenez in that he can hit his spots with great stuff. Jimenez has the stuff but has not yet developed enough control to put it repeatedly where he wants to get it. DLR has not shown the length to finish games yet, but if he does, he can be in the running for the 2010 Cy Young. Look for Jimenez to be there next year. I was disappointed that the Rockies failed to sign DLR to a multiyear deal, but DLR was probably smart to want only a one year deal with FA ahead in 2011. Hope that the Rockies can tie him up for a few more seasons then. Prospects have no place in this rotation without injuries – this is not a year for hoping – this is a year for going after WS rings.
The Rockies easily have three of the best starting pitching prospects in all of the minor leagues – Friedrich, Chacin & Matzek. Rogers and Roe are just a bit further down the prospect ladder.
Except for the very young Matzek who ultimately may become the best of the bunch, the other four barring injury should be ready to push for MLB starting positions by next season – could be sooner and maybe not with the Rockies. Deduno although he slightly out pitched the other three righties above in AA Tulsa last season is beginning to look like a reliever just based on the starting talent around him.
The Rockies current depth in starting pitching prospects is the reason that Morales will likely never start another ball game.
Steve –
Is there a reasonable expectation for Reynolds from a health and potential perspective? It pains me to think we burned such a high pick with (thus far) very little potential for return on the investment made.
On Reynolds:
Jack Etkin reported in late January that Reynolds had pitched a pain-free bullpen session. Reynolds threw 45 pitches, all fastballs — nothing to suggest he’s going to be pushing Jimenez at the top of the rotation, but still encouraging. Unless something has changed since Jack’s report, Reynolds should be part of a minicamp in the Dominican Republic going on now. How he performs there will determine what happens next.
The Rockies aren’t going to rush him. With the a strong group in front of him in Chacin, Rogers, Deduno, Roe and Friedrich — not to mention the five actual major-league starters — the only motivation the team would have to push Reynolds before they know he’s fully healthy is their own embarrassment or frustration that they spent such a high pick on him. And the Rockies as an organization do not seem to have the sort of ego where that would actually be a concern.
A couple possibilities: Reynolds come out of the camp in good shape and starts spring training with the rest of the team and ends up pitching at Colorado Springs to start the season. Or he starts in extended spring training and eases his way back in, maybe making a few stops before Colorado Springs. In either case, the earlier report suggests he is healthy. He is still just 24 years old (25 in July) and sooner or later will resume his attempt to stick in the major leagues. While in retrospect Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Evan Longoria would have been better draft picks, the Rockies believed Reynolds had substantial talent when they drafted him and were proven more or less correct in this assessment by his quick rise through the system. If — still a big if — he’s healthy and can pitch regularly again this season, Reynolds eventually landing in the back end of the rotation is not out of the question. That’s unlikely to happen this season, however, as the Rockies take it slow with him.
Very thoughtful and informative response …thank you Steve
Assuming no serious injury to the Rockies starting five and once the Gregs prove that they are healthy again (say 50 innings or so in the minors), Just a guess here – but expect to see both Greg Smith and Greg Reynolds moved by DanO in a trade this season. Actually to start the season, he should put them both at AA Tulsa to build arm strength, jack up their stats (pitchers park), and rebuild some confidence.
Sometimes it just takes a change in scenery (organization) to really get that fresh start. If healthy they will have trade value as other MLB teams look to improve their starting rotations. Seems to have worked out well for Jason Hirsh, as he was really taking it on the chin with the Sky Sox. Still don’t see him on the Yankees 40 man roster however.
BTW what did the Yankees ever give the Rocks for trading Jason Hirsh last season – does anyone know?
Smith getting traded is a possibility, but I don’t see the Rockies trading Reynolds with only that short time back. While the Rockies aren’t afraid to admit mistakes, they also don’t like to get anything less than they think is fair value in trades. They’ve invested a lot of time and money in developing Reynolds, and it’s unlikely any team would give fair value in a trade with only a brief comeback. Maybe after a full season back.
The Rockies trade of Hirsh was a trade only in a technical sense. I believe it was officially for future considerations, but as far as know the Rockies never acted on those future considerations. Basically, the Rockies were done with Hirsh. He was regressing in the minors and they wanted to be done with him and found a taker in the Yankees. The Rockies gave Hirsh to the Yankees.
A healthy and in form Jeff Francis will be a godsend. Remember in 2008 he had only 4 wins. If he had been healthy and say produced a 15 win season the Rox would have been in the thick of the pennant race.
Top to bottom, the Giants notwithstanding, we have the best pitching in the NL West and perhaps the second best, behind the Phillies, in the NL.
Let’s get this party started! Go Rox!
Do the Rocks have too much pitching? Can any of us imagine saying this before? Hammel was awesome as our #5. JDL was awesome as our #3 or 4. Cook? Steller! Jiminez hasn’t achieved fully yet but we all think and hope he can become our ace. If not, he is one of the best non-ace aces. And, can we accept that he doesn’t overmatch all 27 hitters in the opponent’s lineup?
We are no longer banking on the future. And yet, our strength in the minor leagues is pitching. Maybe there is another club or two that wishes they were in this situation.
PurpleRow.com has come out with great reports on our pitching being better than other NL West clubs. With the kids on the farm and our current corral of pitchers, what fun it is to be a Rockies fan. Can you remember when it was Rekar and 4 days until his next start? Yikes.
As I started to think of 2011 and 2014, I stopped. My only thought is this year. The future can wait. Let’s win it in 2010!
Nice update Steve, Thanks. There is no doubt, on paper, the Rockies have the potential to have a great starting rotation. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Like you, I’m hoping that Francis is back to form and 08 and 09 are permanently erased from memory.
Maybe the best thing for Cook is a late summer rest. Last season was strange for him with performance varying month to month.
That’s 2 great pitchers with their share of struggles 2 out of the last 3 years.
Jason Hammel? I got to see him pitch his 1st 3 seasons. One can only hope that last season was a sign of things to come. He has shown slight improvement each season with 09 pretty much being a break out year for him. Based on his rate of improvement, I guess it would be fair to expect 12 wins in 2010. Looks like the Rockies may have got the best of that deal. Where is Aneury Rodrigez?
I think both Jorge De La Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez will win at least 18 games. Jorge may win 20. Should have last season. I’m somewhat confused as to why the Rockies didn’t make some attmept at an extension with Jorge. What happens to him if he has another 16+ winning season?
I agree, things loom on the horizon and the horizon could be as close as spring training.
Mike,
The Rockies have everyone except JDLR in the rotation locked up or under team control through 2011 at least, all at good prices. I believe the Rockies thought about an extension with JDLR, but word was he wanted Oliver Perez 3yr/$31mil type money. That type of contract doesn’t make much sense for Colorado. Either he regresses back to the rest of his career, making that contract a bad one. Or – he continues to be a very solid pitcher and would command big money in the free agent market, possibly giving the Rockies two draft picks when he leaves. With Chacin, Friedrich, Rogers and potentially Deduno, Matzek and Nicasio knocking on the door by then, it would be a good opportunity to open up a rotation slot for the best of the top prospects.