Spring countdown discussion: NL West
Who’s the team to be beat in the National League West? That question will be easier to answer at the end of spring training but it’s worth asking now as the Colorado Rockies and their division rivals prepare to open the spring after a mostly quiet winter in the division.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2009: 70-92, fifth place): Three years ago at the start of spring training, the Diamondbacks had all the prospects that made scouts drool — Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez — and the Colorado Rockies, while promising, were mostly an afterthought. The farm systems of both teams carried them to the playoffs that season. Now, the Diamondbacks are regrouping after two down seasons. One of the cornerstones of their youth movement — Young — spent a lot of time in the minors last season while another — Gonzalez — busted out with the Rockies. The Diamondbacks lineup is still loaded with high-end talent, but many suffer from the same vice: too many strikeouts. The team added two former Braves — Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche — to the right side of the infield and bolstered its pitching staff with Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three-team blockbuster that also cost the team two of its best pitching prospects — Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, who were both pitching in the major leagues last season. The bullpen received the biggest boosts in Aaron Heilman and Bobby Howry. More distressing, perhaps, to some Rockies fans who loved to boo him at Coors Field, Eric Byrnes is in Seattle now after being released by the Diamondbacks. Arizona made by far the most significant changes in the offseason among NL West teams, but was it enough and were they the right changes?
Colorado Rockies (2009: 92-70, second place): Meanwhile, the Rockies’ youth movement has matured. While many projected the Rockies would collapse after the losses of Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, the team soared after its early-season struggles with a boost from its next wave of young talent. Another pitching-heavy wave is about to land this season and next. The Rockies sought to make some moves in the offseason — particularly at second base and in the bullpen — but their primary focus was on re-signing arbitration eligible players and creating some stability on their roster and the payroll. The additions of Miguel Olivo, Melvin Mora and a full season of Jason Giambi give the team its deepest bench in ages while the starting lineup, starting rotation and back end of the bullpen return nearly entirely intact.
Los Angeles Dodgers (2009: 95-67, first place): The Dodgers’ confused ownership situation clearly had an effect on their offseason shopping. Their biggest addition was probably infielder Jamey Carroll, while they watched Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Orlando Hudson walk and traded Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox. The lineup is still strong as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and James Loney continue to grow into their roles. But the starting rotation has some serious question marks after Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. The team desperately needed to find a big arm for the front end of the rotation, but the best pitchers on the market signed or were traded elsewhere.
San Diego Padres (2009: 75-87, fourth place): Despite being written off fairly early in the 2009 season, the Padres had a strong finish to lift them out of last place. The team tried to bolster its depth on a budget, adding Jon Garland, Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Stairs, and Scott and Jerry Hairston, all at reasonable prices. Evergreen’s Kevin Kouzmanoff was traded and Brian Giles, whose game completely fell part last season, signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers. The starting pitching is more stable than it was a year ago even with the trade of Jake Peavy late last season, and the team resisted the temptation to trade Adrian Gonzalez during the offseason. The question remains which 2009 Padres team is the real Padres: the team that bottomed out at 38-62 in late July or the team that finished the season 37-25?
San Francisco Giants (2009: 88-74, third place): The 2009 Giants were all pitching and little hitting. The 2010 Giants will be much the same after swapping out Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff for Randy Winn and Ryan Garko. When Freddy Sanchez returns, the lineup will get a decent upgrade, but it remains an open question whether or not it’s enough to significantly improve an offense that finished 26th in runs scored in the majors last season and faded into the final days of the wild-card race. The starting pitching remains among the toughest in the baseball with Madison Bumgarner likely joining Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Jonathon Sanchez.
A few opening questions:
Who is the best team in the division?
Who is the worst?
Projected order of finish?
Where does the NL West as a division compare with the rest of the league?
Worst team in the NL West is the San Diego Padres. Even before the season starts everybody is talking about how they are going to trade their best players for prospects at the non waiver trade deadline.
Just above them will be the Diamondbacks. They could suprise and get off to a good start (and a resurgent Brandon Webb), but they would fade down the stretch. This is probably their best case scenario.
The top 3 (once I take off my purple sunglasses) gets pretty tough. My gut tells me the Giants will finish 3rd again because they simply cannot score runs. They have, hands down, the best starting pitching in the division. If they had even a servicable offense they would be the favorites, but they don’t even have that. I could see them being in the race up to September, but fade in the last month because of their lack of offense.
The Dodgers and Rockies will battle down the stretch for the division crown. It will probably come down to the last week of the season. The last two series they have with each other (one at Dodger Stadium and one at Coors Field) will probably decide it. If they Rockies can figure out how to win at Dodger Stadium, something they have never seemed to be able to do, then I think they will win their first division crow. Mix in the LA drama with the McCourt’s divorce, and hopefully that enough to give it to the Rockies.
Right now I would give the Rockies the edge.
My predicted finish
1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Dbacks
5. Padres
Good summarization, Steve, and a scenario that could play out, by Shane.
The Padres will not compete this year – might be awful or might be a danger, but not a competitor in the NL West, the besst division in the NL again this year. AG will be traded by the deadline, in all liklihood.
D-Backs should show considerable improvement – Justin Upton will break out in 2010 or 2011 to the star category. Webb comes back as does Conor Jackson. Overall, they need a much better Steven Drew, but their defense is still ordinary, way too many strikeouts – even more than the Rockies. Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche are slightly above journeyman additions; If Howry and Heilman are significant boosts to a bullpen, trhen the BP is real weak spot, including Qualls as CL. Chris Young was supposed to be what Upton is – enough time has elapsed to say that the team would be better off with Parra as a starter and Young traded for somebody else. Too much is being expected from this group; they are no better than a distant fourth.
Pitching is the most important ingredient to winning and the G-men have it in spades, except for some BP weakness in the middle innings. They gave not upgraded their offense by any measurable amount and are dependent on a brigade of guys almost eligible for Social Security – and probably will need Medicare sooner than that – Renteria – Uribe -Sanchez – Huff – De Rosa – Molina – Rowand. The great pitchers will suffer again from lack of an offense. Third for the Giants, barring a raft of injuries to the top two teams.
Dodgers are heavily dependent on some elderly players – Ramirez, Blake and Furcal, to have impact seasons and not declining seasons. Their BP is the team strength; the starting pitching is representative but shaky.
Belliard and Carroll, more veterans, are basically journeymen. The team lost Wolf, Garland, Pierre, and Hudson – not good. They look like a team hoping for a big pickup or two at the trade deadline. Still, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, maybe Ramirez, and a decent defense and BP make them a good team. The Dodgers are the Division champs, they won more games last year than anyone in the NL – they should be the Division favorites going into 2010, but will they finish first again? I pick them second, just like Shane did.
The Rockies have the best chance to destroy the balance present in the Division because they have so many young players with great talent. A break out year to stardom could be in store for one or more, and it looks like Gonzales is a likely suspect. Also, Tulo can break out by hitting for average – he is capable of .330 or so, and if he does, he will take a place alongside Hanley, and the team will prosper. SP and BP look solid – DLR could have a break out season and challenge for the CY. Stewart can improve as can Fowler and Iannetta. Seth Smith is a starter, and will be there sooner rather than later. Bench is OK, Giambi gives rest to Helton while heeping the offense in good shape. Team defense is superior; strikeouts were a problem and must be addressed. The bench is OK and it appears that the Rockies are in much better shape than the Dodgers to deal with injuries/ineffectiveness.
Injuries affect everything, but the Rockies should capture their first Division crown and with enough advancement by the talented young men, they could overtake the Phillies as the best team in the NL by season’s end. This is a great time for Rockies fans.
Am I nuts for thinking that the D’Backs top 3, if/when healthy, could be as good as any top 3 in the bigs? (Haren, Webb and Jackson)
I don’t want to jinx it but
Rockies
Giants*
Dodgers*
D’Backs*
Padres
*= That could switch itself in a heartbeat
Its going to a great season
The Rockies look like the team to beat this year and the dodgers will probably fall off the top of the division and will probably finish 3rd or 4th. the diamondbacks and giants will be a good fight this year. I see the dbacks finishing 2nd and the giants finish 3rd but it could be anyones year. I don’t think or at least hope that like recent years the team that wins the division doesn’t have control of it the majority of the year. I don’t see the padres being too much of a threat and hope that the season goes the Rockies way and that our team doesn’t have another slow start
Marc,
Nope, you’re not crazy. I agree with you, the D-Backs top three are top notch. Right up there with the Giants top three.
I also agree with you on the order of finish for the season. I think the Dodgers have lost too much and will fall. Manny will have to play clean this year and we’ve already seen what happens when he does.
The Giants still can’t hit. If opposing teams can hang in the game until the Giants starters leave, they have a good chance of winning.
The D-Backs still can’t play defense and can’t stop from swinging for the fences. Hit it long or miss it completely for them at the plate.
The Rocks are the most well rounded team in the division. Their defense will keep them in most every game they play. The pitching can win games for them and the offense can step it up as well.
Should be a very interesting season. I’m looking forward to it.
Las Vegas wise guys have the Dodgers with better odds to win the WS than the odds for the Rockies and Giants – big mistake! The Dodgers (starting rotation was questionable to begin with) have not adequately replaced Wolf and Garland – two solid starting pitchers.
1. Rockies (solid rotation, bullpen, defense, lineup and depth)
2. Dimondbacks (back of rotation and bench are still questionable)
3. Giants (still no offense beyond Panda)
4. Dodgers (questions throughout starting rotation)
5. Padres (over acheived last year)
And the fight for second and third in the division will be much closer than the fight for first.
The only NL team that the Rockies will have a tough time overcoming will be the Phillies, although they helped the Rockies alot by shipping Cliff Lee to Seattle. One baseball expert (Bogley) noted today that the Halliday/Lee trade will go down as one of the biggest blunders in baseball history – yep that’s about right.
This is what I love about the week before Spring Training. Right now it is easy for me to agree with Shane and others with Pads at the bottom, then DBacks, Gints, Dodgers or Rockies on top. Something about the Dbacks scares me – their young talent I wrote off last year, but Upton moved up and the rest still has upside. I think the Giants will have a struggle not only to score runs but also the pitching could come back to the pack (I remain awed by Lincecum’s performance but believe he is due for a more human year). The Dodgers will have things worked out by the trading deadline and have chips to deal to fill needs. Our Rocks? I believe, and I think 94-97 wins is possible, especially if Tulo can avoid a wreck of April and May and relax and just hit from day 1. So make mine
Rocks
DBacks
Dodgers (okay, this is more with my heart, or anti-heart than reason)
Giants
Padres
1. Rockies
2. Diamondbacks
3. Dodgers
4. Giants
5. Padres
You know, I am just terrified that the Rockies are going to come slow out of the gate and not be able to catch up this year. I hope I’m wrong.
I do agree that the only team completely out of it is the Padres. I also think that all the other 4 teams will lead the division at some point this year and nobody’s going to run away with it (although I’d love to see the Rockies do it!).
Like someone else said, its going to be a great year-fasten your seatbelts. Already have my Spring Training tickets to see the Rockies in Tucson (and up here in Phoenix for a couple games as well).
Can’t wait!
Way too tough to call for me.
I think the Padres have the potential to be the surprise team of the West.
The Giants have not 1 but 2 pitchers that might be impact pitchers this season. One coming out of the pen. If Bumganer lives up to expectation, argueably, they could have the best rotation in the NL. Zito, like Jorge, lost some games last season through no fault of his own. Posey might be listed as #3 on their depth chart but I’m willing to bet you will see him behind the plate sooner than later. What is he like 3x faster running the bases than Molina? Sanchez will most likely be back by May. I think 1st base is still a question mark in their mind. All the media outlets have Adrian Gonzalez going to the Red Sox but what if he ends up with the Giants? I know, same division, money, never gonna happen, they signed Aubrey Huff, I’m out of my mind, but what if? A little more offense and it could be BIG trouble for the rest of the West.
The reason I went into depth with the Giants? My picks explain.
Have the Rockies gained the confidence to overcome 4/14 and 8/10 and win the West? Will the starting rotation be back, equal to or better than last year, and in good health, even in August? I sure hope so.
1)Rockies/Giants
2)Giants/Rockies
3)Dodgers
4)Padres
5)Diamondbacks
1st–Rockies–I agree with Rich M about their bullpen, lineup, defense and depth. I don’t see the Rox taking a horrendous step back as they did in 2008. They have their questionmarks in Ianetta, Barmes and Stewart. But the Rox at least have the depth to shore up the lineup if they struggle. I look for a breakout year from Carlos Gonzalez and I think Mora could be a pleasant surprise. Though I am looking through purple spectacles like everyone else here,I think the Rockies are the best team in the division.
2nd–Giants–You can’t bet against Lincecum and Cain in those many, many 2-1 games they’ll be having. The Giants really did not have a good free agent crop to choose from this offseason and wisely did not open their wallets for Bay, et al. Just speculation, but I look for the Giants to make a run at Prince Fielder or A. Gonzalez (as Mike also speculated) at some point to help their fledgling offense. And if they do land Fielder–which as a Rockies fan I hope they don’t–they would have the heaviest corner infield outside of beer-belly softball.
3rd–Dodgers–With Ramirez it’s not a question of if something strange will happen but when. And Padilla probably won’t help the clubhouse either. Also, the talent pool is drier than in years past with the losses of key players like Garland, Pierre and Hudson. But, to his credit, Joe Torre is a great manager, and does well even when he’s not managing the most talented teams, so I would never count the Dodgers out of contention.
4th–Diamondbacks–A talented team for sure, but there are just too many question marks to put the D-backs any higher. Will Webb return to form? Will the team hit? Their top of the rotation is good, but what can they expect from Kennedy? That said. They could be the surprise of the league.
5th–Padres–Peavy. Traded. Kouzmanoff. Traded. Gonzalez. On the block. The Padres don’t have the punch to compete with the rest of the division. Though they’re not terrible, I just can’t see the Padres competing at a high level given their young untested talent. Also, Chris Young would have to finally be healthy and pitch exceptional the enire season if the Padres want to even excape the cellar.
Best division: The West of course.