Rockies’ rotation depth gives team options
The Rockies feel they have depth if a need arises in the rotation. How do you rank the alternatives in terms of which one you feel would be the best option if a need arises for a starting pitcher?
Jhoulys Chacin
Samuel Deduno
Tim Redding
Esmil Rogers
Greg Smith
Smith is the guy I find most intriguing. He had a series of ailments a year ago that slowed him down, but he had a solid rookie year with Oakland in 2008, working more than 190 innings. And that was in the AL. Now he is in the NL.
Redding has been around and is what he is. I don’t see a major high side to him but you know he can compete. He would be a Josh Fogg type in regards to filling the role, although they are different style pitchers.
Chacin is my sleeper. I’d like to see him at least start at Triple-A and get his pitch selection back in order after becoming breaking ball happy in his brief big-league exposure last year. With the catchers this year — Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo — I don’t see that happening. They will look for more a power game from Chacin.
Deduno and Rogers have great arms and high upsides but I’d like to see them get a half season, at least, of Triple-A seasoning.
What do you think?
I agree, Tracy, I like the thought of Greg Smith cracking that rotation sometime this year. It looks like he’s healthy and in good form this Spring. As for Redding, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings if he was cut in in the next couple of weeks. The rest of that crew needs a little time to develop.
Where does Christian Friedrich fit into this mix? Do you think he will start the season in Colorado Springs? And do you anticipate him getting any big league time in 2010, perhaps when the rosters are expanded?
Swam,
Christian Friedrich will start the season at Tulsa, the next move up the development ladder after splitting last year at the two Class A clubs. The best-case scenario is he follows the path of Jeff Francis, who had a huge year at Tulsa (13-1, 1.98) in 2004, moved up to Colorado Springs for seven starts and was in the big leagues in late August. Of course, the Rockies are in a very different place than they were in 2004, but it’s not a stretch to see Friedrich getting to the big leagues this year when the rosters are expanded.
I don’t like Smith, I’m not sure why. Doesn’t really seem to project out to more than a four or five starter. Perhaps I just have something against Colorado pitchers named Greg. Like Mr. Reynolds. Deduno, on the other hand, I like a lot. He’s got some absolutely filthy stuff, and I put him above Morales in ceiling and upside, and above Chacin in major league readiness.
It has been hinted at before that Deduno might soon need to be moved to the bullpen. With his high walk ratio along with the high strikeouts, he might be a better fit in relief.
My guess is that his stuff compares about the same as Morales except obviously coming from the right side. If that should happen, could we see Deduno in 2010 with Rockies before Chacin and Rogers – in a Daley/Corpas type of relief role? It also appears that Chaz Roe is making a move to warrant some consideration for the MLB roster as well?
Deduno seem to get a lot less prospect hype than both Chacin and Rogers, but if you look closely at the numbers, he actually out pitched them both at AA Tulsa in 2009.
I think the comment that Smith projects to a 4 or 5 is not bad. Look, if Ubaldo Cook and DLR don’t pitch up to expectations then we are going to struggle because, despite the view from the East Coast, the NL West is probably the best division in the NL, along with the AL West the 2nd best divisions in baseball. Smith is a 4 or 5, but he can be a very good 4 or 5. If either Francis is not able to get back on track (and it is early in spring still) or Hammell struggles (or if he presents more value in the pen), then I would go with Smith. Chacin worries me because he did go off his game last year in CO. He needs to trust his stuff, and that is always the danger with young guys who get moved up too quickly. So I would prefer to see the other two young arms get their time in COS. Redding is a stop gap, and if we have him on the 25 it means either someone didn’t perform or is hurt (bad news) or he showed more than he has his previous few stops (good). But you know you are not going to get much better than a 5 era for a season from him. As for Friedrich, let him take his time. One, don’t start that arb clock until we have to and two, the more he works on his 3rd and 4th pitch thebetter he will be when he get here.
I don’t disagree that a 4/5 starter isn’t bad. It just isn’t great either though, especially on a team that is chalk-full of 4/5 starter talent. I’d sooner have Morales or Deduno pitch, as well as Fried/Chacin (once they are ready of course).
I think Smith would be a great fill in pitcher for us, or as a ling reliever out of the pen. I would rather take him in those roles than Redding. The Rox have to let their young players show what they can do eventually to see whether or not they have what it takes to make it at the major league level. If we need a pitcher to fill in as a starter we will still have 4 solid pitchers that will carry the load for the team. All they would need is a decent start from whomever they decided to pitch, and hope those other 4 can go longer in games to save the bullpen for the game that a one of the younger players starts. After Smith I would go with Chacin, Rogers, Dedundo, then Friedrich.
Greg Smith from what I’ve heard is a finesse lefty. Which are fine in most places, but even with the humidor and the big OF at Coors, but the change in delivery points at elevation, make finesse lefties, not a good match with the Rockies in general. So I have to say, I’m not excited about Smith. I’m glad he’s bouncing back from last years injuries.
I’m more excited about Deduno or Rogers or Chacin. I think any of these guys have a chance to be solid major league starters. Numbers would say, one of these guys will fall short or expectations. I think they all have things to work on. Deduno is working on a change up this spring.
If this was 2004….all of these guys would be getting rushed to the majors. I’m glad to see the Rockies have the luxury of depth. Even Jeff Francis is likely to not break camp with the big league club as the Rockies won’t need a 5th Starter, until the first part of May!
Redding is expendable and insurance, just in case all the young guys aren’t ready.
It’s hard to assess Greg Smith because we didn’t get to see much of him last season. All we have to go on is a rookie season two years ago in the American League. Based on his numbers then, it’s pretty encouraging.
Before 2007, Baseball America had him as the Arizona Diamondbacks’ No. 15 prospect. Before 2008, he had moved up to No. 13 before being traded to Oakland. That seems about right. At best, he’s a back-of-the-rotation lefty. Shawn Estes and Darren Oliver had some success here in similar roles. But given the arms already here and the high-end prospects who are so close, Smith might have to be better than that to make the Rockies rotation. At the very least, he could provide good depth and help the Rockies resist the temptation to rush someone who isn’t ready.
I am going to admit right from the top that I am overreacting:
If Jeff isn’t ready I am not sure I would love a rotation that would include Redding and Smith on the back end. My confidence in Jorge is pretty solid but I can’t help but to think back to his first three months last season. There is no basis to expect regression but I can’t seem to completely shake it either.
I think Chacin has to be in the Springs for a little while to work on consistency and maturity.
Maybe its obvious but this rotation and team probably goes the way Jeff goes as the alternatives are anything but predictable.
Based on team and park factor differences between Oakland and Denver, the guess here is that G Smith could be a very capable fifth starter with a 4.80 ish era and a 10-8 type record with some decent run support – think Hammel from the left side (although not a power type pitcher).
If that projection holds true to form this spring, then the Rocks might “think” about trading Hammel or G Smith. Long term Hammel figures to lose out to the Chacin, Rogers & Deduno righty trio; while G Smith projects to be surpassed by both Friedrich and eventually Matsek (and yes I know he hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet).
I would not consider any of the pitchers listed as true starting depth. At this point and time, everyone would be a risk to be considered a starter with any consistency. If I had to pick one it would be Redding followed by Smith.
Good thing is Fogg and Redman are NOT on the list. I would like to see what Smith could do, he has a lot of upside. Hopefully none of them would be needed.
For me it’s too early to give a rank to the prospects – they should all start the season in the minors unless there is an unusual rash of injuries to starters and/or relievers. Francis has no injury issues at present – he must advance his game and there is plenty of time for that. The Rockies have 16 straight games scheduled in April so a fifth starter will be needed by the middle of the month. If a starter is needed to replace one of the fab five early on, both Greg Smith and Redding are there for that purpose. If not, Smith (who is young) goes to AAA and Redding goes to the pen if someone there falters – assuming Redding does not falter himself. The choices look good to me. Two prospects not mentioned are Chaz Roe and Juan Nicasio – like the others, headed for the minors. Great young depth for the staffs at the Springs and at Tulsa.
If Francis falters, I agree with Tracy about Greg Smith if he shows dominance in spring training. Otherwise I’d go with Redding because of his experience.
Of the young, inexperienced guys (Chacin, Rogers, Roe and Deduno), the guy I find most intriguing is Denuno, who returned from an injury from the 08 year and dominated in Tulsa last year. He has “filthy” stuff, and I also like the fact that he gets a lot of ground balls, which works really well at Coors.
I agree with a number of the comments.
If we have 5 healthy effective starters, then Smith’s role is either to be the long reliever/spot starter, or he’s back in AAA working on his game. If one of the 5 starters is injured, then Smith might be a likely candidate to step in.
I would like to see the young guys (Chacin, Rogers, Roe) spend some time in AAA and work on their pitching. Their day will come, either due to injuries this year, or next year based on what happens with free agency.
The player who is intriguing is Deduno. I listed to a bit of yesterday’s game, and it sounded like he was quite effective, and that his stuff was filthy. He’s already 26, so maybe he should be considered to be a candidate for the bullpen this year.
Of course, we know that Friedrich is right behind all of the other pitchers, and very well could be a starer by the end of the year or next year.
Overall, it seems like a good situation for the Rockies.
I don’t know that I am qualified to rank those guys in a proper order, but I will go ahead and say that if Tim Redding is in the rotation for more than a start or two the Rockies will be in huge trouble.
Deduno is ready now.
In years past we would be looking at some of these guys as top of the roatation guys instead of number 5!
Last night was the 1st time I watched one media outlet begin to wonder about the pitching, and more specifically, the bullpen. They keyed on the 37 runs allowed recently. I say it’s still early and the young guys need more time on the mound. I guess my biggest question is, if the era continues around 9.0 or higher for some, who goes and who stays? It’s not just some of the players listed here. Look at Corpas and Morales.
Could be some tough decisions in couple of weeks along with maybe a revolving door to the Springs.
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