Experts favor Rockies with preseason picks
When spring training started, the Colorado Rockies were viewed by most national media as a good story, a promising team and certainly a contender for a playoff spot this year. Over the last month, they have become the “surprise” pick of so many people that they no longer qualify as a surprise. So where do we stand days before the season begins? A rundown of a few predictions by the national media:
Fox Sports: Ken Rosenthal has the Rockies winning the National League West and says the Rockies “could be best all-around club in league.” Jon Paul Morosi, however, doesn’t think as highly of the Rockies.
ESPN: Of the network’s 35 experts picks, only nine do not have the Rockies winning either the National League West or the wild card. Of those who like the Rockies, six have them playing in the World Series:
- Buster Olney: Rockies over Yankees.
- Jerry Crasnick: Rockies over Yankees.
- Karl Ravech: Red Sox over Rockies.
- Pedro Gomez: Yankees over Rockies.
- Rick Sutcliffe: Rockies over Yankees.
- Tristan H. Cockcroft: Yankees over Rockies.
Baseball Prospectus has the Rockies winning the National League West with 86 wins, followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. More here for ESPN Insiders.
SI: Jon Heyman has the Rockies listed No. 5 among “Powers” in his preseason rankings, and Pablo Torre, previewing the National League West, has the Rockies taking the division with 91 wins.
I have high hopes for the Rockies this year too, but I’m worried about the start of the season. The Rockies have the bad habit of starting slow and digging themselves into a hole that they then have to climb out of after the all-star break. It didn’t prevent them from making the play offs last year, but it would be nice to see some consistency throughout the season. If they start slow again, everyone listed above will jump off the bandwagon in a hurry.
I agree with Al that if the Rockies start off slow everyone is going to jump off the bandwagon…my response. Good, let them go. If you have watched the Rockies in the last three seasons and you still think that a bad April disqualifies them, then fine, we don’t need you on the bandwagon. More room for us.
That said, a .500 April would go really far.
Of course, the players have to get it done on the field and for the most part all Jim Tracy can do is give them the opportunity to succeed. Nevertheless, I’m very interested in seeing what this team can do with JT at the helm all year long. When he replaced Clint Hurdle, I never expected they could climb out of that deep hole and make the playoffs. In over 40 years of watching baseball I can’t recall a managerial change making such a difference. At most, this might have happened once or twice.
This will be fun to see. Let’s PLAY BALL!
I too am worried about April, but mostly because both Tulo and Ubaldo are notorious slow starters. I can only figure its the weather. Both guys were great this spring, so they look ready. At every other spot if someone is scuffling for a week or so we can plug in another guy to change things up, but those two (along with Morales, but do not really have a book on him as a closer in April) are the key. If they start strong then .500 will be a disappointment on April 30.
And who really believes that only 86 wins is going to take the West. They will beat up on each other but I think the West is going to great against the CEntral and East. I am thinking 92 wins is a minimum to win the West, probably more like 94 or 95.
Just got back from Las Vegas and the wise guys there had the Rockies and Dodgers at 85 1/2 wins. That would be a dead heat to win the NL West, but I really believe that the Rockies are at least three wins better than the Dodgers. How can V Padilla be the ace of the Dodgers starting rotation – and still expect them to succeed? Great lineup and outstanding bullpen, but that starting rotation of theirs will scare no one.
The Giants have no offense and a terrible defense, so really not a factor. San Diego is still a big trade (AG?) and a couple years away. Arizona could win as many as 88 games with a little luck and can stay healthy. The Snakes are now the “real” sleeper team in the West to watch, as the Rockies have become the favorite – in many circles.
Bottom line is Las Vegas still doesn’t believe the Rockies can win 90+ games (again) and dominate the NL West in 2010. We will see – let the real games begin!