Questions for spring: Can the rotation be trusted?
Entering spring training in 2010, the Colorado Rockies starting rotation looked remarkably similar to their 2009 rotation, only with former ace Jeff Francis returning from injury in place of Jason Marquis, who had left as a free agent. Yet a rotation that went 69-50 with a 4.10 ERA in 2009 dropped to 58-52 with a 4.21 ERA in 2010. Remove Ubaldo Jimenez from the equation and the rotation’s numbers dropped from 54-38 with a 4.28 ERA to 39-44 with a 4.61 ERA.
The difference? In 2009, 10 pitchers made starts for the Rockies but 155 of 162 games were started by just five pitchers — Jimenez, Marquis, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa and Jason Hammel. In 2010, only eight pitchers made starts, but the five pitchers expected to fill out the rotation — Jimenez, Francis, Cook, De La Rosa and Hammel — accounted for just 125 of 162 starts. The Rockies’ second-best starter arguably was Jhoulys Chacin, a rookie who bounced between the bullpen and the rotation as well as between the majors and the minors.
In 2011, the Rockies again will bring back a similar group of starters, this time with Chacin in the rotation full-time in place of Francis, who left as a free agent. But a lingering question hangs over each starter:
- Can Jimenez maintain his dominance for a full season?
- Can De La Rosa, the second-highest-paid Rockie in 2011 after Todd Helton, live up to his contract by pitching 200 innings and be the No. 2 starter the team needs?
- Can Chacin, whose solid rookie season went almost totally unnoticed outside Colorado, emerge as the frontline starter his stuff suggests he could be?
- Can Hammel move to the next level ?
- Can Cook regain his form?
The success of the rotation could depend on health more than talent and as long as they’re healthy, Jimenez, De La Rosa, Chacin, Hammel and Cook will answer their questions in the regular season. But Cook will be watched closely in spring training after a season in which he nearly lost his spot in the rotation with an inconsistent stretch in late July and early August but instead went on the disabled list with a toe injury. If the anticipated rotation can again account for the vast majority of the team’s starts, the Rockies could be in line for a season more like 2009 than 2010. But worth watching in spring training is whether or not the Rockies have an answer to perhaps the biggest question regarding their pitching staff: what happens if the rotation is again hit with injuries? Next in line are Felipe Paulino, Esmil Rogers, Clay Mortensen and Greg Reynolds. Behind them are prospects Christian Friedrich, Juan Nicasio and Cory Riordan. If the Rockies are going to be able to withstand even minor injuries, they’ll need a backup plan better than they had in 2010 when Greg Smith and Rogers combined to go 2-4 with a 6.28 ERA and the team won just three of the 16 games they started.
65,080 minutes until first pitch. It seems with this nice weather today, baseball season could start a little earlier this year. A couple of pre-game beers at Swankys, or the Sports Column, the crowd gathering outside the ballpark. Can’t wait much longer, I’m about to die waiting. I think I’m not alone either.
You are not alone, Rocky. I made the big leap from individual ticket buyer (usually specials like Green Tix or Wells Fargo BOGO) to buying the 20 game package that includes Opening Day. It will be my first Opening Day game and I am going crazy waiting for it.
Big question is Cook. He is the swing guy, and who we have backing him up is just as important. If Cook falters, we will need someone (most likely Paulino) to eat innings. I feel that we will get what we need out of the other 4 starters, but if we get nothing out of Cook do we have someone to step in, or will we have 3-4 guys barely reaching the 5th inning.
Good article with GREAT questions!
hahaha dare I respond Steve? You could probably guess what I would say before even writing it.
I also agree with Rocky and Prog. I’m ready and am looking forward to seeing Talking Stick.
I was kind of shocked yesterday. I put on MLB TV and saw the great weather at home. Looked like an absolutely beautiful day. Then, during the shots of the Phillies, I see my mom standing there at the fence. Needless to say she had no clue she made MLB TV.
Steve, how do you see Mortenson fitting in with this group? Do you think he might actually be able to crack the rotation in a couple years? I don’t know a whole lot about the guy.
If you look at both playoff seasons, 2007 and 2009, the rotation had remarkably good health in each season. Last year, not only was the rotation dinged up, the bullpen was rejiggered with Street’s injuries and the lineup had to suffer through DL stints by Tulo, Hawpe, and others.
Let’s put it this way….if the Rockies can cut the DL time in half from last year while getting 145+ starts from the projected rotation, they should be in fine shape to make the postseason.
I think Ubaldo can match last year’s numbers, although at a much more consistent rate. Don’t think he will be 15-1 at the break, but I believe he can win 18-20 games again for the Rox.
Chacin I’m real high on and believe he will win 13-15. I think he will show a little inconsistency because of his youth in the bigs, but for the majority will pitch real well and set him up for a break out year in 2012.
If DLR stays healthy he will also win 13-15 for the Rox in my opinion. Lights out stuff but he will still be inconsistent at times.
Cook and Hammel are the keys in my opinion. I believe the top 3 will do their job, but I don’t have a clue what to expect from these two guys. If they can stay healthy and keep their ERA’s below 5.00 then the Rox should be in good shape.
Overall, I’m content with the Rockies rotation. As I’ve noted in the past, I believe they need a true No. 2 guy who can pitch 200 innings, but if the rotation simply approached the consistency of 2009 they would be fine. A year ago, though, I felt about as good about the rotation as I do now and while the statistics weren’t significantly different, watching the Rockies starters (beyond Jimeenz) in 2010 was not as comfortable an experience as it was in 2009. The Rockies had a lot of minor problems and injuries to spread around in 2010, but if the team had gone even 8-8 rather than 3-13 in the games started by Smith and Rogers, the season would have had a substantially different look to it. One of the interesting things to watch in spring training is how close guys like Paulino, Reynolds, Rogers and Mortensen come to cracking the rotation. Would be good for the Rockies if they ended spring training feeling as if somebody was being left out rather than scrambling at the last minute to fill a spot as they were in 2010 when Smith took over for Francis at the last minute.
As for Mortensen, we’ll see how the Rockies use him in spring training. Baseball America describes him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter but has talked in the past of how he might fit in a setup role out of the bullpen. He has four pitches and gets a lot of groundballs with a sinker, so he could be a fit in Coors Field. But long term because of some of the other arms on the way in the next year or two like Friedrich and Nicasio (and down the road Matzek), Mortensen may not fit in the Rockies rotation. This year there could be a need because he’s more advanced than the Rockies’ best pitching prospects and if he gets the chance and runs with it, maybe he claims a spot beyond this year.
Well, I think that the key in this rotation is De La Rosa. Because he is going to be that No. 2 starter that Rockies missed last season. First was Francis, then (if my memory doesn’t fail) Chacín took that spot as a regular.
Chacín may be able to throw more innings this season, since he didn’t play this winter in Venezuela.
Two question. What is the best season (time, month) to go to Coors Field (Denver)? Is there a lot of problems to get tickets or good seats?
Hi Cesar, great to see you posting again. I hope you are right about Chacin being stronger because of not playing winter ball. We need to get close to 200 innings from him.
As Steve notes, even factoring in the potential for a Spring Training setback to one of the starters, I think the team is in a better depth position than 2010, when Greg Smith was tapped to be #5. We remember how badly THAT turned out.
Color me optimistic.
It is never too hard to get good seats at Coors. Though I think Cardinals and Cubs games may be much more difficult. I also expect the Chi Sox games to be pretty big sellers.
As far as Denver, no one can predict the weather around here in April and September. Anything middle of May through August should be nice. IMO Denver never is overly hot. At least the 95 degree days are not humid.
Cesar, others may have a different opinion, but late June to early July is my favorite time out at Coors Field. The weather can be a bit unpredictable in April and May and tough to plan trips around, but by mid to late June it’s nice, but not too hot out at the ballpark.
Cesar,
As Steve said, late June and early July are great times at Coors field, but anytime is good as long as you are there. As noted April and early May games can be cool to cold.
The Rocks have not been selling out lately except for ‘special’ games, such as Opening day (my personal favorite day at the park), the fireworks games, Cub games are near sell outs if not a sell out, etc. Otherwise you are sure to get a good seat at a reasonable cost.
But, as to how good a seat depends on what you consider a good seat. Seats directly behind home plate on the first and second level are hard to come by, but third level is doable. If you want to, you can always approach the ticket scalpers on the street, they may have those hard to come by seats, but they will cost you.
I personally like the club level seats. Good deals have been had in the past by going to Wells Fargo (https://www.wellsfargo.com/jump/regional/rockies), 2 for 1, but seats are limited. If you know well in advance you will most likely be able to grab these.
Hope this helps.
Enjoy the game.
I used to love the 2 for 1 club level deal through Wells Fargo. They used to be right near the bags, but the last time I got them they stuck me out in the furthest club level down near the right field corner. I absolutely hated those seats worse than sitting in the outfield.
Prog,I went to opening day last year[1st in my 64 years]and it was great!Of course weather was exceptional,and DLR was unhitable,seats were upper deck but still a great experience. Hope you have a great time,and continue to post so I can sometimes disagree.I’m the guy who loved your letter to the Post after the Kiszla Helton bashing last year.Todays weather sure does make one antsy for that first pitch.
Thanks robba, Prog, Steve and Trip.
I think it will be August, since I hope my vacations to be that month. Altough i have chance to travel every seven days the whole year, i think that’s a little time considering i have to do it from Venezuela.
Hope to be posting much more than recent months, but sure i don’t stop reading. This website was the first i looked at and the best of Rockies i’ve seen. Keep up the good work!!
GO ROCKIES!
Hey Gary,
I’ll be sure to post all my wacky opinions and observations this year! I’m sure its going to be a lot of fun this season. We’ll see what Kizla has up his sleeve this year as well. lol.
Ahhh, but the best time to go to Coors and catch the rockies is in mid September when they are making a push for the playoffs. Plus the weather in September usually holds out very well.
Actually, the best time to see a Rockies game is in October in the playoffs (although, as we recall, it can be really cold).
The real question should be can we trust the pitchers that are a phone call away? I certainly like the depth we have this year compared to last year. I’m hoping that Greg Reynolds finally stay away from the injury bug and pitch well in Springs to be ready to fill in if needed if not Paulino or Rogers. I didn’t mention Greg Smith. So there’s a good chance at least one will break out if the door opens.