The Colorado Rockies lineup Sunday against the San Diego Padres:
LF Eric Young Jr.
CF Dexter Fowler
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ty Wigginton
2B Chris Nelson
C Eliezer Alfonzo
RF Ryan Spilborghs
SP Juan Nicasio
Should be a run scoring gme for both teams
I bet this means that Iannetta is a gone. I do like this lineup!!!
Today is Sunday folks. Turn off the tv and enjoy the BBQ picnic.
Yep, Alfonzo in the lineup day game after a night game.
So O’Dowd has determined that two of his best players are part of the problem.
Here comes another win!!!
Agbayani, have to question you on that comment. I like CDI a lot as well, but one of their best players? Before the trade I think the list would have been Tulo, CarGo, Ubaldo, Helton, Smith, Chacin, and then maybe CDI. Not sure you can say the two of their best players. If you have holes you have to fill them, and players like Ubaldo and CDI (bc catching stinks in this league) can help fill them.
As for the Sunday curse, it ends today. The Giants are getting run by the Reds, so if they win today Rox are down to only 9 back, heading home, and would mean it was a winning road trip.
Or maybe they are playing Eliezer because he is AWESOME!!!!
Doc, when I say “valuable,” I’m speaking in relative terms. That is, you need to:
1. Look at raw performance. Under that measure, Helton is surely much more valuable than Iannetta. He’s a more productive offensive player. No argument there.
2. Look at positional averages. As I’ve said before, you expect a first baseman to be a very productive offensive player. Relative to first basemen, Helton is having a fine year, but he’s nowhere near the productivity of an Adrian Gonzalez. Iannetta is not Brian McCann, but he’s pretty darn good based on what clubs can expect to get out of a catcher. In this sense, Iannetta may have as much value to the Rockies as Helton does. In short, it’s as hard (or harder) to replace his level of productivity at catcher as it is to replace Helton’s level of productivity at first base.
3. Look at excess value vs. what the club is paying the player. Helton is making about $12 million this year (it’s hard to figure it out exactly with his deferred salary, but it’s at least that). He’ll make the equivalent of about 6 million next year, guaranteed. And then about the same the next year. So from 2011-13 he gets 24 million bucks or so, an average of 8 million a year. A 37 year old free agent Todd Helton (with Todd Helton’s health history) would not get nearly that much on the open market. Maybe he’d get what Lance Berkman got: 1 year, 8 million bucks. So Helton, at his current contract rate, certainly isn’t providing any surplus value to the Rockies. (In fact, after this year — good as it’s been for Helton — I can’t imagine anyone giving him a 2 year/$12 million deal for 2012-13 given his health history. So he actually has a somewhat negative real value to the club.) Meanwhile, Iannetta is signed at extremely affordable salaries for the next couple years: $3.55 million next year, a $5 million club option for 2013. A catcher of his caliber (and age and durability) would get well over $8.5 million/2 years on the free agent market. I’m not sure how much, but I’d guess about 2 years/$14 million. So he provides more value than he costs.
Ubaldo was ridiculously cheap for the same reason, and was even more valuable to the Rockies than to anyone else since the Rockies had a club option on him for 2014 at $8 million which (I believe) is voidable if he’s traded. In other words, the Rockies owed him $18 million for the 2012-14 seasons. Assuming he avoids injury the rest of the year and performs about the same, a pitcher like that on the free agent market would command at least $40 million on the open market for those 3 years. How do we know that? Well, and older and inferior pitcher — Jorge De La Rosa — just got $30 million for 3 years on the open market. So the Rockies had a surplus value of at least $20 million — and probably closer to $35 million — in Ubaldo over the next 3 years. So trading him required a “Herschel Walker type return,” which I don’t think they got. I think that would’ve required a sure-fire, major league ready position player in addition to a couple excellent pitching prospects. In other words, it was better than some deals they could have made, but still appears to be a bad deal from the perspective of today, which is the perspective from which all trades should be judged. (Getting the benefit of hindsight a couple years from now isn’t really fair.)
So that’s why Ubaldo was this club’s most valuable commodity, and why Iannetta is one of the most valuable remaining commodities. Which makes it weird to me that O’Dowd is hell-bent on getting rid of them.
Agbayani, I agree with that terminology, but you did say two of their best…different category for me. But please accept my apology, and thanks for your info.
Has anyone noticed that Dexter Fowler is slowly, right before our eyes, becoming a real live major league player. All on the road, he has 5 out 6 games with multiple hits and 3 3-hit games. And his base running looks much better. He seems like a confident Dex, not just with his defense, and his average is now the same left and right (or close). This is very exciting, because if Dex has turned the corner, it means that we will a real CF, and can look at moving either or both of RFs knowing we have plenty of other talent to play there. This will be big to watch.
And it looks to me like Tulo has begun to heat up again.
Nice effort by Wiggy but that should have been an out if Stewart was playing there. That is why we need Ian to step-up. Its not an error, but it gives them another out and now Nicasio needs to deal wtih a baserunner who is going to steal.
That was an impressive inning by Nicasio. I was worried about how Maybin might impact him but he got it – if I get this guy out, he cannot score. He kept his focus and strikes out the side for the 2nd time. This is the 2nd time through the line-up, so will be interesting to see how he does.
BTW, on the tv DOD was on and I was really impressed by his evaluation of the team, that there are not enough guys who have moved from the survive mode to the contributing or star mode. He said quite simply this team is not playing serious ball – doing whatever it takes to win rather than just doing their job. The Giants he said do what it takes to win, they get that, we are as talented, but until we learn that we wont be able to win the division. He also said no one has given up on 2011, even as we see which of our kids is ready to do something up here. Good interview. Sound dx. Lets see if JT can do his part to make this team feel urgency and desire to win. The trade of the Chief should remind them all that no one is guarented to be here.
Thought the DOD interview was interesting too, but wondered why there were no followup questions as to if coaching is at least partially to blame for players basically getting too comfortable. I don’t see CDI as all that valuable, certainly not in top 10 on team. Counting pitchers he is top 15.
Robb, I was wondering that as well, but guess DOD is not going to say in public what I hope he has been saying in private to JT.
Really like what we have seen from Chris Nelson. Alas, he does not have enough power to be 3B, but I still think he is their best option at 2B long-term. He does seem to have improved his two strike approach since he came back. I know the Rox are committed to bringing back Ellis but it would be great to see Nelson make that an unnecessary move. Now lets hope after having two good games he does not sit the next one.
If Nelson keeps playing like this then have to think twice about bringing Ellis back.
Nice start by Nicasio. Good to see on the road.
Exactly Matt … stupid and now we are in a tie game
Soilborghs is too good to bunt. Didn’t you get the memo? /sarcasm
The Fonz singles and Spilly hits into the DP. Raise your hand if you didn’t see that coming. Sometimes Jim Tracy is such a dolt!
Nice job by Brothers, solid effort!
The Sunday woes continue.
Another bloody Sunday – at least we come home to play a piece of crap team
Disgusting baseball. You don’t walk Forsythe to set up the DP? Garbage. Not that it necessarily would have mattered given this pitching.
Pathetic! Could have cut the deficit to under 10 games with two months to play. That’s this team’s MO though.
RMH and all others…
I chose to mess with computer on future travel plans, etc. and didn’t watch or listen to game as the Sunday jinx was certain to come visiting again.
Finished up and went to the big screen…it was the bottom of the eighth and, lo and behold, Juan had pitched a gem. Don’t know if the Rox squandered more scoring opportunities or not but settled in for the final 9 outs…OOPS!!
…and that is why Brothers is not yet ready to close. Belisle has lost it as far as I’m concerned. And further, I find out that Alfonso catches a day game after a night game. Has CDI EVER done that this year?
…very, very perplexing manager decisions. What’s new.
Now we get to see Hamels and Halladay in the next three games…going to all 3…hoping we get 1.
Time to go play with my Golden, Wrigley Field Banks, and forget about the Rox for another day.
If u don’t bunt in the eight,on the road,in that situation–you will continue to lose one run games.Also those of u who have anointed Brothers as the heir apparent to Street,might want to think again.
Anyone else note the lackadaisical effort by Seth Smith on that “triple” by Headley in the 8th? Smith jogged toward the ball, and Dex actually took it off the wall. That allowed Headley to take 3B, which meant the infield was in for the next batter, which meant that a routine groundball out to Tulo was a base hit, which meant a run scored, which led to the inning totally unraveling …
True to form Rockies:
Play for the 5-run HR on the road in a tight game,
Lose on Sunday,
Don’t pick up your team mate (Nicasio),
Disappointment but no surprise.
I’m a big Smith fan, but I’m afraid he is a first half player. Play him April – July and give him the rest of the year off.
The “real”Rockies show up again on Sunday. So good to know we will be getting some pitching help sometime in the future. Or at least they project as terrific major league players. That’s all this organization is ever going to be, prospectively good.
Belisle is just complete garbage this year! He seems to be the king of allowing inherited runners to score and then a few more for himself. Perhaps next Sunday the Rocks should forfeit the game and go to church!!
Totally agree with the lack of small ball by Jimmer. There was four times in the game were I thought there should be a bunt and all four an out or two was recorded with out the runners advancing.
Pooter, while you make a very good point about Belisle’s apparent struggles this season, EdtheUmp and Agbayani also make some excellent points that were big contributors to the loss also.
I watched the first three innings or so, then went to take a nap. Came into the game in time to see the bottom of the 7th. And then Jim Tracy’s adamant refusal to play small ball. It seems like Tracy wants to play his style no matter if he wins or loses. Maybe with a 2 run lead Brothers pitches better, or maybe not.
As for why Alfonso started yesterday, who knows? I was thinking that maybe they thought CI would be traded but of course they let Ubaldo start on Saturday night when they almost certainly knew he would be traded. And I know Alfonso had a big game Saturday night but that’s never stopped Tracy from benching CI the day after a night game. But we know that Tracy does not like either Stewart or Chris and will find every excuse not to play them. And how long can they keep playing Alfonso? He has 5 errors in a handful of games. I believe Iannetta has one error all year. Agbayani is our stats expert so I’m sure he knows. And I agree with him about Smith’s defense (or lack of hustle in right) which cost a base and (perhaps) led to a big-inning. Will DoD trade Smith sooner than later, or is it already too late to get value?
This would be my lineup for tonights game:
E.Y. Jr LF