Rockies farm roundup: White stays dominant at Tulsa
Triple-A Colorado Springs (W, 6-2 at New Orleans, box)
Starting pitcher Joey Williamson allowed two runs on five hits, walked two and struck out seven in six innings. Third baseman Matt Macri was 2-for-3 with two home runs and three RBI. First baseman Jorge Cantu hit a solo home run.
Double-A Tulsa (W, 8-0 vs. Midland, box)
One day after Drew Pomeranz‘s impressive debut in the Colorado Rockies organization, Alex White matched him with most recent start for the Drillers, allowing three hits and one walk, hitting a batter and striking out four in 7 2/3 shutout innings. White hasn’t allowed a run since his one-inning rehab debut at Tulsa on Aug. 4. since then, he has allowed seven hits, walked one and struck out nine in 15 1/3 innings over three starts. Catcher Wilin Rosario was 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and two runs. Second baseman Thomas Field was 2-for-3 with a triple, two RBI, two runs and a stolen base. Shortstop Hector Gomez and first baseman Ben Paulsen also homered.
High Class-A Modesto (L, 8-7 vs. Visalia, box)
Third baseman Nolan Arenado was 3-for-4 hit a two-run home run, his 17th. First baseman Jared Clark also hit a two-run home run. Starting pitcher Alan DeRatt allowed four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings.
Low Class-A Asheville (L, 12-11 vs. Rome, box)
Right fielder Corey Dickerson was 2-for-5 with a double, a home run, two RBI and two runs. The home run was Dickerson’s 24th, second in the Rockies’ minor-league system. Center fielder Chandler Laurent hit a three-run home run. Left fielder Avery Barnes and third baseman Joey Wong each had two hits and two RBI. Starting pitcher Peter Tago allowed three runs in five innings.
Short-Season Class-A Tri-City (W, 3-1 vs. Yakima, box)
Second baseman Timothy Smalling was 1-for-4 with a triple and two RBI. Left fielder Tyler Massey was 2-for-4 and scored a run. Starting pitcher Chris Jensen allowed one run on three hits and struck out four in five innings.
Rookie Casper (L, 4-0 vs. Great Falls, box)
The Ghosts were no-hit by starting pitcher Scott Snodgress and two relievers, but put three runners on base to break up the perfect game, including third baseman Trevor Story was hit by a pitch and stole second. Starting pitcher Jefri Hernandez allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings.
Remember former pro pitcher Kevin Brown? Won 211 games. Just read Barry Lewis of the Tulsa World said he thought back to seeing Brown as a minor leaguer for the first time and how seeing Pomeranz made him think of Brown.
Pretty high praise.
Rockies Prospects and Futures
P.S. Have an interview on the site with Tulsa broadcaster Dennis Higgins, on his impressions of Pomeranz, Christian Friedrich, Joe Gardner and even Juan Nicasio (former Driller).
Nice to see the young guns lighting it up. By no means proves that they’ll have success in the big leagues but at least there’s no red flags to speak of. If they can throw up decent performances in 2012 and the Rockies can hit a little more consistently they definitely have a shot.
Jon
Read this http://www.bleacherreport.com/articles/810185-2011-colorado-rockies-why-ty-wigginton-is-the-human-bad-luck-charm
Now we now who to blame for this season woes.
One observation on the past two night’s performances from Pomeranz and White- Are these guys just so much better than some of the Rox recent draft picks (Matzek, Friedrich, Reynolds, Weathers, etc) or have they been better developed to be MLB pitchers in the Indians organization? If that indeed is the case, what does this say about the current player development people in the Rox organization? If they are just better players, what does it say about the Rox scouting dept.? I just think there have been so many players with promise that have come up through the system the past few years and don’t develop to what their perceived potential should be. You can add the names of Frankie Morales, Stewart, Nelson, EYjr, Fowler to name a few that just have not developed the way we as fans had hoped they would.
Cisco, I think it just has to do more with the general crapshoot that is the draft than anything the Rockies are doing wrong from a player development side. Granted, you could quibble with some of their picks (Reynolds over Longoria, Lincecum, etc. is the obvious one) but given that they’ve had some good prospects develop to be great or at least solid contributors (Ubaldo, Tulo, Chacin, Brothers, Iannetta, Seth Smith), others flop (Stewart, Morales), and others do better than expected, I think they’re at least on par with most major league teams in terms of development. If you look at other teams (including the Indians), I’m sure you’d find a similiar success/failure rate. In some cases it might be a matter of overblown expectations. Sometimes it seems people think every prospect will become an all-star or has a higher potential than what they really have (EY Jr. comes immediately to mind).
Chad and Cisco, I think are both right. Both of these guys have big time stuff, and aside from Ubaldo and Morales we have not had guys who were thought of as being real prospects who had this type of stuff (saw a vid clip of Pomeranz, and his ability to hid the ball has to make that fastball look 97 or so). Ubaldo and Morales at AA time didnt have the maturity, experience and poise yet. These two kids, thanks to their college days, appear to have that. We have been good at getting poise guys – Jennings, Francis, Friedrich – but not poise and stuff guys. No, both could go out and blow their elbows out next week. One or both could get shelled and lose confidence about throwing a particular pitch they need, or they could hit and cause an injury that makes them gunshy about using the whole plate. We never know. But lets be honest…both these guys appear as if they can be special (like the brown analogy…hope Pomeranz is not the world class jerk Brown was). Not every guy is going to be Clemens, Ryan, or Randy Johnson. Their stuff is not that level but if they can become real #1 and #2 (and wouldnt it be nice to see the kind of competition that the Braves and As had on their staff to make guys fight to be the #1). Now, that is probably about 2 or more years down the road, but this has to be exciting. Real arms, real stuff, real competitive energy. Add that to Chacin, maybe Nicasio if he reocvers. Things are getting exciting.
Man Doc C you have to tell us where you found those purple glasses of yours – we should all be sooooo optimistic. Now to fair however, I too am pretty much amazed that in the last two days that we have easily seen two of the most impressive MiLB starting pitching performance that the Rockies have had in the minors all season – wow all that with the pressure on these two guys to really perform – that’s just astounding.
Rich, I put a lot of caveats on things. What I am basing on is that mound presence and skill set. I am simply saying that this is not something we have had in this farm system before. Lots can go wrong between then and now but its nice to not have guys we our counting on not called finese guys. I would be estatic if either White or Pomeranz can equal the success of Ubaldo. But the fact remains that both guys have the potential to do that…and maybe more. Add them to Chacin and if possible a healthy Nicasio and you get the vision that DOD was hoping for when he pulled the trade to Ubaldo.
Not that there is anything wrong wiht finese guys. Francis got us to a WS and was outstanding. But given the choice between a great finesse guy and someone with teh potential to blow guys away with stuff and has mound presence…well, that is what gets me excited. But we wont know until 2013 at the earliest and probably 2014 (based on the development timeline we saw with the 90s Braves and 2000s As). But come on…you have to be excited about the possibilities.
One other thing on first round drafts of pitchers. Only about 10% ever make it to the big leagues and win 10 or more games. Not a high percentage.
sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/06/10/yankees.pitchers/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=hp_bn10
Just how hard is it to build a homegrown rotation?
If you followed the draft this week it doesn’t sound so hard. Nineteen pitchers were taken with the 33 first-round picks, including the first-ever run of four pitchers at the top of the draft. Based on radar gun readings, scouting reports and universal glee from 30 scouting departments, it’s the time of year when it’s easy to imagine future aces, or at least rotation stalwarts.
The truth is that the numbers working against first-round pitchers are staggering. A huge failure rate reinforces the theory that the baseball draft is the most risky of any sport and that pitching — largely because of the injury factor – is the most difficult skill to project in the game.
Here’s one exercise to help you understand the fragile nature of counting on even the very best amateur pitchers. I decided to go back about a decade to find out what happens to first-round pitchers — figuring that should be enough time to measure what kind of footprint a pitcher established in the big leagues. Then I looked at a three-year window to increase the sample size. In this case I used the drafts from 2000 through 2002.
From 2000-02 there were 83 pitchers selected in the first round (including supplemental picks) — 51 out of college and 32 out of high school. Here is what happened with those 83 top pitching prospects:
• 38 never made it to the major leagues. That means 46 percent of first-round picks from 2000 through 2002 never threw a pitch in the big leagues.
• First-round pitchers out of college were virtually just as likely never to make the big leagues (45 percent) as high school pitchers (47 percent).
• 21 pitchers managed to win even as few as 10 major league games in their careers, or just 25 percent of those first-round picks.
• Only eight of the 83 pitchers have won 10 games and posted a winning record — just a 9.6 percent success rate.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/06/10/yankees.pitchers/index.html#ixzz1VUvjhCAo
ok before I get too depressed, how many of those 1st round pitchers had a sub 2.00 ERA at AA.
If a starting pitcher can do that, then I would guess the success rate probably climbs way up there.
I find that statistic completely understandable. Baseball drafts are notoriously hard to anticipate outcomes (I think only the NHL, for many of the same reasons, is as hard to forecast). First, high school pitchers have to show progress and stay healthy for at least 4 years just to make it to the majors. College pitchers are often less high quality but are closer to the bigs age and progression wise, so represent less of a chance. But always with pitchers injuries, even ones that do not stop a career, derail pitchers so much quicker than any other position. Pitcher pulls a hamstraing, changes his delivery and becomes ineffective. Pitcher injuries a knee same thing.
By the time a pitcher gets to AA he has proven somethings. I think Tripp you are very right that if we look at those who dominated at AA, you will find far more that eventually went on to make contributions. Also, Verducci chose a period that had a lot of busts (no to mention that often AA pitchers with live arms find their way to pens, and sometimes never escape there due to impact). Lets think of a more recent year:
Think of 2006 and pitchers who have already made it to the bigs with varying levels of success: Hochevar (have to wonder what his career would have been with another team), Reynolds (injuries have certainly derailed), Brandon Morrow (cusp of being great) Kershaw (CY young waiting to happen), Lincecum (2 Cys), Scherzer (becoming a stud), Kyle Drabek (good enough to be part of the Halliday deal but yet to make it in bigs permanetly), Ian Kennedy (staff ace in AZ), and Daniel Bard (soon to be closer in Boston). Some years, some stretches, first rounders are busts. Scouting goes bad. Sometimes talent chooses other sports, sometimes things happen. Few years will be as bad as 00-02, few years will be as solid as 06. The good news is we are no longer talking about 1st rounders. That is all projection. Now we are talking about two guys who have been very dominant at A ball and for a short sretch dominant in AA.
Show we stats for guys with less than 4 years of minors who had sub 3 ERAs at AA, and how they did when they got to the bigs. Might be more interesting.