Rockies buried early by Hammel’s brief outing
Jason Hammel was roughed up early, putting the Colorado Rockies in a 6-0 hole before leaving after three innings — his shortest outing of the season — in an 8-2 loss Friday to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Hammel allowed one run each in the first and second innings, each team on an RBI single that followed a double. The real problems began in the third inning, however, when Hammel worked slowly and allowed four runs, all with two outs. Aaron Miles and Juan Rivera walked, James Loney singled to scored Miles and Rod Barajas capped the inning with a three-run home run.
Rockies hitters had few chances to try to dig out of the hole Hammel put them in, producing just five hits and four walks. What chances the Rockies had were mostly wasted as they went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. The Rockies scored single runs in the third and sixth innings, the first on an RBI single by Carlos Gonzalez and the other on a groundout by Todd Helton, But the Rockies left two more runners on in the third and in both the fourth and sixth, had a runner at third with one out and couldn’t score.
Not sure why Hammel’s taken such a turn in the wrong direction. And it’s a real turn, not just bad pitching luck. He’s actually had better luck on balls in play this year not dropping in for hits. Look at the stuff the pitcher has total control over, walk and strikeout rates:
2010: 2.38 BB/9
2011: 3.78 BB/9
2010: 7.14 K/9
2011: 4.78 K/9
That’s huge. I’m not getting why given that his stuff seems the same (and the numbers don’t show any dropoff in velocity) and he’s throwing the same pitches with the same frequency as he did last year. (All of this from fangraphs.)
So he’s just suddenly lost his command, and from the sound of Jim Tracy tonight, he’s about to lose his job along with it. I’ve been a big Hammel defender — he was seriously underrated the last couple years, turning in results just about as good as De La Rosa while getting about one tenth of the credit. But his pitching this year — particularly lately — is proving his detractors right.
Yet another reason this 2011 season went down the tubes …
To answer my own question (why does Hammel suddenly suck?), fangraphs has a neat article at the top of Hammel’s page about “swinging strike percent.” The writer of the article predicted at the start of the season that Hammel would likely have a worse 2011 than his 2010. Reason? A very low swinging strike percent. In other words, he had a pretty good strikeout rate despite not getting many swings-and-misses. The author also predicted Ubaldo would have a decline year. I’m not sure I get the concept — I think it’s something like “Hammel got an unusual number of strikeouts based on called strikes (not swinging strikes) and hitters have adjusted by not letting those called strikes go” — but the prediction was certainly right on the money.
Agbayani, I think some pitchers nibble so much that they are targets for trouble. Hammel seems that kind of guy. His approach with Miles was Exhibit A of the problem. Get ahead of a guy (1 – 2) with no one on, not great power, and nibble away trying to get the call instead of going after him. You end up with a walk and the blow-up inning. I don’t think it’s a pitching coach (necessarily) or a catcher, I just think some guys are afraid to pitch to contact. They end up walking too many and walks kill you. It’s simple, but it’s a lesson that some guys can’t retain or act on.
Jason Hammel is likely, despite being a solid back-end rotation piece until this season, to be gone at the end of the season, that despite the uncertainty of the Rockies’ staff with Jimenez being traded, Nicasio’s future unknown, Aaron Cook possibly being set aside as well, and the unknown as far as De La Rosa’s rebound from surgery.
Maybe it’s Chacin, Alex White, DLR (with limited expectations coming off surgery) and 2 new pieces (Pomeranz, I don’t think starts the season with the Rockies).
I was vilified a few nights ago,albeit with some good points,when I said next years rotation was looking like a disaster.Well,I still feel the same way,unless the new guys pitch 200+ and win 15 each!But more because of other posts else wear on site.NO ONE is stepping up.Not Chacin[not ace mind set]Hammel[even though job on the line].The best starts have been veterans showing why they’ve been around for a long time.Certainly Cook,and Milwood have given the team a chance to win.And Escolona has been lights out!!Can he be a rotation canidate next year? He certainly is making a case for himself.I don’t think it’s realistic to expect much,if anything,from Nicasio,or DLR next year.Thus I portend again that next years staff is shaping up as a nightmare!Have at me boys!
Gary, I agree with your assessment. No one stepped up this year and the new kids are just that, new kids. How they actually perform is anyone’s guess at this point, regardless of how dominating they are in AA. DLR and Nicasio will be complete wild cards and I don’t think it’s realistic to even expect Juan will be back in 2012. Millwood’s a fly
ball pitcher and Coors will catch up with him in a bad way over a full season. Cook is not capable of a full season and he can be as frustrating as Hammell. Doesn’t seem like a rotation for competing in the Division, much less the League.
Gary, if I villified you I apologize. Next year’s rotation has tons of talent and lots of potential but…you are right, it will take at least two guys exceeding their prior output to make it a competitive group in 2012. I keep focusing on 2013 because you have to figure the two kids will have the usual rookie issues (unless one of them is Dwight Gooden). We will need to have a great pen next year because there will be a lot of six inning starts or less, just to protect the arms. But again, by 2013 things might be very interesting.
And hey, there is no reason by Chacin cannot step it up nxt year and maybe Nicasio come back and be healthy.
great points everyone! was very impressed by Hammell’s decision after a pitch was hit 9 miles for a foul ball to come back with the same location and watch the very next pitch a touch em all time. After last night’s game, I have to beleive it is time for Hammell to either head back to C Springs until he gets it together CONSISTENTLY or release him. Was bad enough last night that I kept myself up an extra hour wondering if it makes better sense to keep Cook as a 5th starter…had to chug on the pepto-bismol after that thought.
One Word: Yorvit
Gary, I agree with your concern. I don’t see a complete starting rotation for 2012. We have Chacin. From there I’m not sure. Maybe you pencil White in (we’ll see starting Tuesday). It appears that the team has written off Hammel. Cook has been erratic, but if he is more consistent the rest of the year, maybe the Rockies would sign him at a significant reduction for another year (although if he becomes more consistent, he may want more than the one year that the Rockies would want to offer him). To me E. Rogers is a long reliever/spot starter on a major league team, and G. Reynolds and Mortensen aren’t even that. Hopefully, DLR shows up at some point next year, but probably not in April. Nicasio is a question mark. Friedrich and everyone else at Tulsa probably won’t be ready to be in the rotation next April, and there’s no one at CS. So, it seems that DOD is going to have to find some one year starters by trade or free agency.
Guys, am I overlooking someone who could be in the starting rotation next April?